You could be forgiven if, as a college leader, lecturer, member or support staff, or student, you had been walking with more of a spring in your step for the past week or so.
The sector has, after all, rarely been in the limelight in the way it has since Gavin Williamson did his speech on the future of FE a week ago, hailing the potential of the sector to help rebuild the economy and provide opportunities, and promising to lift its status to one that is equal to the university sector.
And I do believe that there is some truth to the sense that the winds are changing, that the stars are aligning for FE, or whatever other geography-related metaphor you wish to draw on here. But I worry that it isn’t going to be quite as easy.
Background: Almost half of colleges to make redundancies in 2020
Student support: Colleges need an extra £300,000 each
More: DfE ‘must support colleges at risk of losing £2bn’
College financial health
Today, we report on the Association of College’s latest survey on the impact of Covid-19 on the college sector, and it makes for rather grim reading. Some of this was hinted at in the previous one - published in May - where four in 10 college leaders predicted a deterioration in their college’s financial health as a result of coronavirus. A third predicted cashflow issues and 13 per cent said there could be “a significant threat to solvency”.
Now, the statistics are just as drastic. The survey, to which around 45 per cent of colleges responded, shows 46 per cent - almost half - of colleges are planning to make redundancies by the end of the autumn term 2020. Just let that sink in. Almost half. And more than a fifth - 21 per cent - will, in fact, have made redundancies by September 2020.
This comes at a time, of course, when colleges are preparing for a new term that will likely be quite different to those of previous years - with blended learning, new employability initiatives, and that Damocles sword of the FE White Paper, due to be published in the autumn, also on the horizon.
It also comes as it will be more important than ever that colleges can support their students. The AoC survey shows 88 per cent of colleges have evidence of increased student hardship following the coronavirus pandemic, and nine in 10 institutions report that their bursary or hardship funds are under more pressure than they were.
In fact, colleges say that to meet the digital needs of students alone - from laptops to connectivity - would require an average of £300,000.
With hardship and struggle, as well as concerns from students about their future and the grief many will have suffered during the pandemic comes another dangerous bedfellow - almost all (94%) of colleges say that there is an additional demand for mental health and wellbeing services for students during the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown.
Earlier this month, Jane Darougar, college counsellor at Leyton Sixth Form College, and Stuart Rimmer, chief executive and principal at East Coast College wrote in Tes that they anticipate students will return to college this autumn with “a range of difficulties from moderate anxiety and depression to acute mental ill-health”.
Crucial now, they say, will be ensuring that staff are “ready and have the support to thrive post-lockdown” and that measures are put in place to equip staff to manage the psychological impact of the crisis and deal effectively with students.
And colleges have, in most cases, already put additional mental health and wellbeing support in place for their students as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
But that sort of work needs capacity. Support staff are often hard hit by college redundancies, especially at a time when the possible need for distancing measures and smaller class sizes may well put additional pressures on teaching staff.
But they are the ones who will be particularly called upon to care for students - from guiding them through a college life that will be markedly different, to ensuring the smooth running of college operations, to mental health support and counselling. Staff may also need CPD to support them in enabling longer-term blended learning - and that takes time and is rarely free. Seeing staff go over the next few months will likely only lead to further challenges down the road.
Colleges can rise to the challenge set to them by education secretary Gavin Williamson. They can support learners and apprentices, and get them ready for the post-Covid economy. But if he does not deliver on one crucial promise from his speech - that they will have the funding required to do so - many could face a dark autumn ahead.