This is expected to be a big year in Scottish education. Education secretary John Swinney seems determined to push through a raft of radical changes that could make life better or worse for schools and teachers. As money gets tighter and the Scottish tradition of consensus-building looks to be fading into the past, we could all be in for some shocks.

Here we look at some of the big issues that are certain to come up, and try to predict what their impact will be.

Testing

Tests are going to be “online and adaptive”, and will “provide instant feedback to teachers, and result in no extra work”. Teachers could be forgiven for thinking that the new standardised assessments in literacy and numeracy, due to be introduced in August this year, will also teach the class, do all the preparation and walk the dog.

The idea that the government is trying to sell is that teachers will barely realise that the new tests are there - but the assessments will help ministers to understand how the system is performing. Perfect, no?

But four things are likely to happen after the introduction of the tests, experts have warned. Assessment guru Professor Gordon Stobart, of the UCL Institute of Education in London, told TESS that they will become an accountability measure; the curriculum will narrow; schools will try to play the system; and the tests will be expensive.

Another worry for teachers in schools with poor connectivity must be, in the execution of these online tests, how long will we have to sit staring at the spinning circle thing?

Teacher education

Mr Swinney set university schools of education the task of coming up with new routes into the profession in July. The feeling was that if they didn’t come up with the goods, the government would have to look elsewhere - and the spectre of Teach First was raised.

However, the universities delivered and Mr Swinney was recently able to announce a £1 million investment in teacher education: students are expected to be recruited on to these courses this year. This solution includes the fast-track option for science, technology, engineering and maths graduates, which will involve the one-year postgrad and induction year being combined.

Scottish education expert Professor Walter Humes, of the University of Stirling, has argued that if the government wants to deliver excellence and equity in education it should put governance to one side and invest more in initial teacher education and CPD.

ITE lacks “intellectualism” and we are not producing the non-conformist, critical thinkers that we need to move Scottish education forward, he said. But are the new routes about quantity or quality? Time will tell.

Pupil equity fund

It looked for a while like this commitment was hanging in the balance. The Scottish government had planned to raise the cash for its version of England’s pupil premium - which will result in heads receiving extra money for every pupil eligible for a free meal - through changes to the council tax. But councils resisted.

However, announcing the budget for 2017-18 last month, finance secretary Derek Mackay confirmed that the government is still committed to the scheme. He upped funding for it from £100 million to £120 million, using Scottish government cash. This money will become available in April, with headteachers set to receive around £1,200 for each pupil from P1-S3 known to be eligible for free school meals - a key indicator of poverty.

Education governance review

The consultation on how schools in Scotland should be run in the future closes today (for more on this, see pages 16-18). Parents have said that they don’t understand it, councils chose to bypass its “leading questions” and the EIS teaching union said that it struggled sometimes to grasp what it was being consulted on, given the lack of firm proposals.

Having said that, there seems to be agreement that Scottish education could be run better - it’s just a question of whether or not now is the time for change. The system is already wrestling with depleted budgets and the implementation of the new qualifications and curriculum. However, it seems that the government has set its sights on structural reform. Given the pace that Mr Swinney likes to move at, you can guarantee it won’t be long before we know exactly how significant the changes are going to be. Hold on to your hats.

Education Scotland

The Scottish Parliament’s education committee decided to ask what impact a number of education bodies had on Scottish education, and in so doing it opened a can of worms. Education Scotland and exam body the Scottish Qualifications Authority came in for a whole lot of criticism. However, it is Education Scotland that everyone, from directors to teachers, is clamouring to see reformed.

The EIS teaching union lambasted Education Scotland for failing to challenge the government on education policy, describing the body as “politically compliant”. Secondary headteachers’ organisation School Leaders Scotland (SLS) has called for it to be split up - into separate development and inspection agencies. Education directors’ body ADES has made the same call.

Meanwhile, Lindsay Paterson, professor of education policy at the University of Edinburgh, said: “Education Scotland is responsible for developing Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) and, through the inspectorate, for evaluating it. This risks a conflict of interest.” It seems unlikely that Education Scotland can survive 2017 unchanged.

Curriculum for Excellence

Is CfE really, well, excellent? After the Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy and the Programme for International Student Assessment results, the jury is out and experts say the government has five years to salvage the situation.

Still, as the University of Glasgow’s Professor Louise Hayward said, it is difficult to imagine a curriculum in Scotland that would not want learners to be successful individuals, to be confident and able to collaborate effectively and to be responsible citizens. “The challenges lie in its implementation,” she added.

Perhaps some more detailed research, in the coming year, into what is and what is not working wouldn’t go amiss? The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which runs the Pisa rankings, carried out a review of broad general education in 2015, but it involved experts visiting for a few days and no primary research.

John Swinney

We had heard of the “Sturgeon selfie”, but seemingly a “Swinney selfie” is also a thing. TESS first noticed this at last year’s Scottish Learning Festival, when teachers’ demands for photos halted the education secretary’s progress through the crowds on his way to meet the press.

But how long can this rock-star introduction to Scottish education last? Not long, inevitably. Already there are rumblings about the speed with which Mr Swinney - who became education secretary in May - is trying to introduce change. But so far he has shot down any concerns. He told education directors last year: “Why is pace a problem, because we have to get on with it?”

But in Scottish education, change through consensus-building has been the norm in the past and Mr Swinney might do well to try and win some hearts and minds in 2017. A brisk manner and a no-nonsense attitude will only get you so far.