It can be a thin line between boldness and chutzpah on one side and hubris and delusion on the other - that much is clear from the Scottish government’s record on education.
After Nicola Sturgeon became first minister nearly five years ago, she declared that she should be judged on her education record. More specifically, it seemed that she was promising to eliminate the “poverty-related attainment gap”.
Presumably, an adviser whispered in her ear that, since time immemorial, any attempt to span that gap had been about as solid and enduring as the rope bridge in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom. Sure enough, the rhetoric was tweaked soon after and it became all about “closing” the attainment gap - a far more achievable-sounding feat.
The headline message remained the same, however: the first minister was to be deemed a success or failure depending on how well the country’s education system was doing.
That, of course, made it far more of a political football than it had been for years, as opposition parties took any opportunity they could to hammer the government on education.
Some prognoses of doom have been facile and politically motivated. Certainly, any time someone tells you that Scottish education is an unmitigated disaster, you can stop taking them seriously - here at Tes Scotland, we spend more time in schools and colleges than most, and we can guarantee that is far from the truth.
But there is no denying that several of the government’s flagship projects in education and children’s services have fallen flat.
Just last week, education secretary John Swinney had to announce that the Named Person scheme was being scrapped. It was supposed to assign an adult, often a teacher, as point of contact for every child in Scotland. Not every opponent was against it in principle; while some perceived something sinister in how personal data would be shared, others simply saw a potentially noble child-protection scheme that had been bungled.
Named Person’s demise would be sore enough for the government on its own, but it continues a pattern. In June, of course, came confirmation that the Education Bill would finally be killed off, with schools now to be “empowered” by other means. Around the same time, following a review, the government announced that another embattled policy would continue: the Scottish Standardised National Assessments for P1s. But they’re limping along - you’ll struggle to find a teacher who says the SNSAs help them do their job better.
And more educational woes could be on the horizon. In December, the next round of results from the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) will be published. John Swinney described Scotland’s last Pisa results, in 2016, as “uncomfortable reading”, and he must be bracing himself for more bad news.
Of course, Pisa’s methods have plenty of detractors - but it is in large part down to the government that Scotland’s Pisa performance will be given what many say is disproportionate attention. Having scrapped the Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy and withdrawn from Timss (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) and Pirls (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study), Pisa provides one of the only overviews of Scottish educational performance.
Meanwhile, there is plenty of concern about Scotland’s ability to deliver the doubling of free childcare and early-years hours scheduled for August 2020. Last week, minister for children and young people Maree Todd said that, as with the relatively smooth completion of the Queensferry Crossing, the doubters will be proven wrong. It remains to be seen whether the delayed and overbudget Edinburgh trams or Scottish Parliament building are more apt points of comparison.
Has the government once again overpromised only to underdeliver? The next year may determine whether we look back on this era as one of boldness or hubris in Scottish education.
@Henry_Hepburn
This article originally appeared in the 27 September 2019 issue under the headline “Bold promises, sure - but they could damage Sturgeon’s legacy”
