There truly is no such thing as ‘expected progress’

We must stop using teacher assessment for anything other than formative purposes because it’s impossible without reinventing levels, says Tes’ resident data expert

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The first rule of progress measures is: they can’t be predicted. The second rule of progress measures is: there is no such thing as expected progress.

Ofsted gets this. In March, it stated: “Ofsted does not expect any prediction by schools of a progress score, as they are aware that this information will not be possible to produce due to the way progress measures at both KS2 and KS4 are calculated…‘Expected progress’ was a DfE accountability measure until 2015. Inspectors must not use this term when referring to progress for 2016 or current pupils.”

This is hugely significant because it ...

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