A levels are tough, and at the sharp end of Year 13 one of the few motivations that keeps sixth-formers going is knowing they’re only one set of exams short of a university place.

But a strange phenomenon is taking hold in colleges across the country. More universities than ever are issuing unconditional offers. Rather than boosting learners’ confidence and attainment, many providers are concerned these offers are actually leading to a drop in performance and undermining their efforts.

A strange phenomenon is taking hold in colleges across the country. More universities than ever are issuing unconditional offers

In 2015, Ucas reported that 2.5 per cent of offers made to students were unconditional, up from the previous year’s return of 1 per cent, with the number of unconditional firm choices made by students increasing from 6,000 to 15,000.

We are yet to know whether this trend is set to continue in 2016 but, already, the Complete University Guide is estimating that upwards of 5 per cent of offers might be unconditional this year.

Of course, unconditionals have always been used by universities to reward exceptional students and signal their worth as HE hot property. Lauren, a sixth-former hoping to study a degree in music, is one such student. With a predicted grade profile that doesn’t dip below grade A and a personal statement packed full of extracurricular activities, she’s the kind of hard-working student who ought to be the recipient of a university golden ticket.

“It was a real boost getting an unconditional place,” says Lauren. “The university wrote to me and said that I was the kind of student they wanted on their course. If I accepted the offer, it could really take the pressure off my studies. It would probably give me a lot more time to pursue my musical passions outside of college, too.”

York St John University makes unconditional offers “where we believe it is fair and appropriate to do so”, explains communications officer Amy Lansdown-Nasson. “When this is the case, we use careful criteria to look at an individual’s overall application and achievements to date before making an unconditional offer.”

Golden tickets tarnished

For highly motivated students, the lure of an unconditional place is just reward, but the sheer volume of such offers appears to be diluting their value. “When I realised that two of my classmates received exactly the same letter from the same university, it made me doubt the skills I was told I had,” explains Lauren.

College and school teachers and leaders also have significant concerns. “Our goal is to give students a lifelong aspiration to achieve,” says Ellen Beveridge, head of Durham Sixth Form Centre. “We are concerned that unconditional offers are demotivating students at a critical point in their studies and that they’re damaging long-term career prospects.”

We are concerned that unconditional offers are demotivating students at a critical point in their studies

Those concerns are borne out by analysis undertaken by Ucas, which suggests that unconditional offers were a pronounced factor behind underperforming applications in 2015-16. Its research identified that students who held such offers were 23 per cent more likely to miss their end of year predictions by two or more grades than their peers.

Joanna Bailey, principal of Prior Pursglove and Stockton Sixth Form College, also has fears about the impact of this trend. “Based on our experience, the use of unconditional offers appears to be a tactic that some universities are using to attract potential students in a competitive marketplace,” she says.

“The strategy sells sixth-formers short in terms of maximising their achievements because it creates a short-termist attitude.

“Given the pressures on colleges to deliver in terms of retention and achievement, these offers undermine our efforts. I can’t believe that they’re in any of our interests - student, college or university - for the longer term.”

Certainly, Lauren feels her offer was based upon a marketing decision as well as her academic abilities. “I felt I was being given a hard sell,” she says. “My offer was made on the condition that I accepted the university as my firm choice and that it would be withdrawn if they became my backup plan.”

Lauren eventually declined her unconditional offer. “The course looked great,” she says, “but the facilities weren’t what I wanted. I was also worried about the effect of studying alongside students who hadn’t worked as hard on their A-level courses as I had.

“A couple of my friends with unconditionals have virtually dropped out of their A levels - they’re certainly not giving them 100 per cent. I don’t see how they can be prepared for university study.”

Lansdown-Nasson, however, says that York St John’s own analysis “shows no significant difference in the achievement of our students who receive an unconditional offer, compared to those whose offer is conditional.” Perhaps the real question that students ought to address when selecting an unconditional place is whether they can remain motivated enough to achieve their full potential.

Mark Dixon is head of media and film at Durham Sixth Form Centre. He tweets @soultrumpet