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Unexpected progress

RIP expected progress? Beware, writes our resident data doctor: there may be life in the concept yet…

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The department for Education’s primary school accountability guidance states that the “[expected progress] measure has been replaced by a value-added measure. There is no ‘target’ for the amount of progress an individual pupil is expected to make.”

This is indeed the case for the official progress measure, which compares each pupil’s attainment score against the national average for pupils with similar start points.

There is, however, a data fly in the progress ointment. The new primary inspection dashboards now show percentages achieving the expected and high (or greater depth) standard in ...

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