The Institute for Fiscal Studies has advised cutting teacher numbers in Scotland after finding that schools could have 90,000 fewer pupils by 2040.
The recommendation has been heavily criticised by a teaching union, however, which described it as a “false economy” that would “short-change” pupils and damage the country’s long-term prosperity.
The Scottish government recently pledged to restore teacher numbers to their 2023 level.
Impact of smaller classes questioned
However, in its latest report on Scottish education, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said while that would result in smaller class sizes, evidence suggested it would have only a “modest effect” on attainment.
The independent think tank said keeping teacher numbers in line with pupil numbers could save the government £500 million a year by 2040.
The IFS said councils could divert this money into schools or other budget areas, such as social care, at a time when local authorities face “an increasingly tight funding environment”.
Many councils are considering cuts to education. The EIS union had announced strike action by teachers in Glasgow over cuts, although yesterday it suspended the walkout following a change in the council’s stance over proposed reductions in the number of teaching posts.
The IFS said that day-to-day school spending in Scotland has increased 27 per cent since 2015 and is now at £10,000 a year per pupil, the highest in the UK.
Class sizes are smaller in Scotland, it found, with an average of around 13-14 pupils per teacher in 2024, compared with 17-19 in the rest of the UK. The number of pupils per teacher is expected to fall to 12 in Scotland by 2040 if teacher numbers are maintained.
The IFS warned that a “one-size-fits-all” approach to teacher numbers may not work, particularly in rural and island schools.
“Given both the financial context and concerns about declining school standards in Scotland, it will be vital to maximise the value for money of school spending,” it said.
“Allowing teacher numbers to fall in line with pupil numbers would instead release funding that could be used for other priorities.
“This would be small in the short run, about £65 to £120 million by 2027, but could amount to an annual saving of £500 million in today’s terms by 2040.”
The IFS added: “At the same time, policymakers face challenges from rising levels of additional needs, new teachers struggling to find jobs, recruitment shortfalls for secondary teachers and over-recruitment of primary teachers.”
Cutting teachers to free up funds
Darcey Snape, a research economist at the IFS and author of the report, said that cutting teacher numbers could in principle free up funds for schools or other areas of council spending, which “may be particularly valuable in the context of what looks like a tight financial outlook over the coming years for both the Scottish government and Scottish councils”.
She said the evidence suggested that smaller class sizes were not the most cost-effective way to improve attainment - if that was the government’s priority.
She also argued that local councils were “best placed to make decisions over school and teacher numbers in their areas, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach across Scotland” - something that councils’ umbrella body Cosla has argued in the past.
Ms Snape said that the government “could then focus on engaging with councils to ensure that training and recruitment of teachers better align with locally identified needs and on ways to improve the quality of teaching and learning across Scotland”.
However, Patrick Roach, general secretary of the NASUWT teaching union, said that high investment in children’s education “improves opportunity, outcomes and life chances” and that cutting teacher numbers would “damage life chances” and be “a false economy”.
Dr Roach added: ”Using changes in pupil numbers to justify cutting teacher numbers is not only short-changing children, it is based on a fallacy that there are already optimal numbers of teachers in schools.”
Longer-term cost to society
Mike Corbett, NASUWT Scotland national official, said cutting teacher numbers would negatively impact the growing number of pupils with additional support needs, as well as “current problems with excessive workloads and working hours and negatively impact recruitment and retention”.
Mr Corbett added: “It should also be remembered that it was the commitment to post-pandemic ‘education recovery’ which prompted the Scottish government to promise additional teacher numbers in the first place to help pupils who had struggled with or missed some of their education. But now we also need additional teachers to help address other post-Covid issues such as increased behavioural problems and poorer attendance.”
Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrats’ education spokesperson, said that the Scottish government had “made a complete pig’s ear of workforce planning for teachers”, with teachers unable to find permanent work at a time when there are staff shortages in rural areas and key secondary subjects, such as sciences and languages.
A Scottish government spokesperson said “ministers would not support any suggestions that teacher numbers should be cut”.
Funding for local authorities was increasing to £186.5 million this year to restore teacher numbers to 2023 levels, freeze learning hours and make meaningful progress to reduce class contact time, they said.
The spokesperson added: “We are also delivering a package of £28 million to employ more specialist staff and teachers to support additional support needs (ASN) in schools and a further £1 million to support national initiatives to help recruit and train more ASN teachers.”
For the latest in Scottish education delivered directly to your inbox, sign up for Tes’ The Week in Scotland newsletter
