DfE failing to help primaries with falling pupil rolls, warn peers

The government is failing to support primary schools that are suffering a drop in funding as a result of falling pupil rolls, peers have warned.

The House of Lords Public Services Committee says lessons need to be learned as the drop in the birth rate starts to hit secondary schools.

The committee has written to education secretary Lucy Powell to call for “greater action” from the Department for Education to support schools and local authorities experiencing falling rolls, and to ensure that pupils’ academic outcomes are not compromised.

It has also asked the government to assess what impact falling rolls will have on schools’ ability to implement its planned reforms of special educational needs provision.

The committee has called on the DfE to provide detailed evidence-based guidance to schools and local authorities to tackle the issue of falling rolls, using examples of good practice.

Questions over SEND reforms

The letter follows a short inquiry by peers into falling school rolls earlier this year.

In July the government cut its forecast for the number of pupils in England’s schools in 2030 by 286,000 after projecting a much faster decline in school rolls than previously expected.

There will be 7.22 million pupils aged 0-15 in state-funded schools in 2030, according to the latest Department for Education figures.

The committee’s letter, sent today, says that new guidance should seek to avoid school mergers and closures without proper strategic planning. The focus should be “on minimising the impact on children’s educational outcomes and health and wellbeing”, peers state.

Committee members also say the government must learn lessons from falling rolls in primary schools to ensure that mistakes are not repeated for secondary schools, some of which are already experiencing the effects of the drop in the birth rate.

Their letter sets out a series of questions for the education secretary to answer, including whether the national funding formula is adequate, what the government’s assessment of long travel times for primary pupils is, and whether financial pressures will hamper SEND reforms.

DfE ‘failing to come to grips’ with problem

Lord Bradley, chair of the Public Services Committee, said this is “an issue that the government should have seen coming”.

He added: “Whilst we were told about some measures being implemented to address this issue, we remain unconvinced that the Department for Education has fully come to grips with what is required to tackle declining rolls in an effective manner.”

The government “needs to address the issues we have raised in our letter and urgently respond to the questions posed”, he said.

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “Every child deserves a great school place close to home, and this government is already taking action to shape the future of our schools system: as pupil numbers change, we’re supporting areas to plan ahead and make the best use of their school estate.

“We’re backing this with record investment, including a £2.3 billion increase to the core schools budget in 2026-27, alongside £400 million to create tens of thousands of nursery places and £3.7 billion for new SEND provision.”