Experts play down DfE role in teacher workforce recovery

The government has “engineered very little” of a recovery in the teacher workforce, with falling pupil rolls and a weaker graduate jobs market being key factors in the improvement, experts have said.

The latest school workforce figures show a sector benefiting from “favourable conditions”, the Education Policy Institute (EPI) think tank said, but it warned that there is a risk the government may still fail to fix deeper recruitment and retention issues.

Department for Education figures published last month showed there were 466,372 full-time equivalent teachers in English state schools in November 2025, down 1,900 on the previous year.

The DfE has claimed it is making progress towards Labour’s pledge to recruit 6,500 additional teachers, with the latest figures showing an increase of 4,654 teachers compared with 2023, excluding primary schools where pupil numbers are falling.

Tes revealed last year that primary schools have not been included in the 6,500 new teachers target. Instead the government is focusing on teacher numbers in secondary schools, special schools and further education.

Weaker labour market

The improvement in the teacher workforce situation has largely been driven by two factors outside of the government’s control, the EPI said today.

A shrinking pupil population has reduced demand for teachers, and a weak graduate jobs market has made teaching look a more attractive option.

James Zuccollo, director for school workforce at the EPI, said the figures tell “a coherent story of a sector benefiting from favourable conditions, but, perhaps, at risk of failing to fix the roof while the sun is shining”.

“Fewer teachers are leaving, schools are finding it easier to recruit, early-career retention is near its highest level in over a decade, and falling pupil numbers have eased the squeeze in the classroom,” he said.

“The worst of the profession’s difficulties may be behind it. However, the government engineered very little of this: a shrinking pupil population has done the work on the demand side, and a weak graduate job market has helped on the supply side.”

And Mr Zuccollo warned: “Both could reverse, and while pupil numbers will keep falling for some years yet, the job market will turn as soon as the economy strengthens.”

There were 8,920,227 pupils in England in 2025-26, down 112,200 from the previous year, following a 59,600 decline in 2024-25.

In primaries, full-time equivalent teacher numbers fell by 2,900 from 2024 to 2025.

Secondary schools are now seeing a fall in student numbers after they rose faster than teacher numbers during the 2010s.

The number of students per secondary teacher has risen from 15.4 in 2010-11 to 17.3 today, according to the EPI. It warned recent cuts to teacher training targets risked locking in this higher ratio as “the new normal”.

The EPI said recruitment at the country’s biggest employers fell by 14.6 per cent in 2025, while the proportion of teachers in their twenties leaving the profession fell to 9.5 per cent.

Although these figures can give the impression that teaching is becoming more attractive, it is “often just a consequence of the wider labour market weakening”, Mr Zuccollo said.

The recent recovery could reverse quickly if the economy strengthens, with schools again facing stronger competition from graduate employers, he added.

Subject shortages

The EPI has also warned that national improvements in the teacher workforce situation are not necessarily reaching the schools and subjects facing the largest shortages.

Around 28 per cent of physics hours are being taught by non-specialists, DfE data shows, despite the government cutting the physics teacher training target from 1,410 to 810.

Teacher pay has also fallen behind the wider economy over the past decade, Mr Zuccollo said. Teaching now pays less, relative to the graduate jobs it competes with, than it did 10 years ago.

Targeted retention payments for shortage-subject teachers in disadvantaged schools are “a good start”, the EPI said, but it warned this only covers earlier-career teachers in a small number of subjects.

Rather than looking at overall workforce numbers or the government’s teacher recruitment pledge, Mr Zuccollo said it is important to track whether “the right teachers are reaching the right schools” and whether the recent gains go beyond broader economic trends.

The DfE has been approached for comment.