The growth in the disadvantage gap for 16-year-old school students since the pandemic can be entirely explained by higher absences among disadvantaged pupils, according to new research.
A report by the Education Policy Institute (EPI), Breaking Down the Gap, says that pupil absence is a key and growing driver of the gap in attainment between disadvantaged pupils and their peers.
The research finds that if disadvantaged pupils had the same level of absence as their peers in 2023, the attainment gap at age 11 (of 10.1 months) would have been almost one month smaller, and the gap at age 16 (18.6 months) would have been over four months smaller.
Higher levels of absence
It adds that the growth in the disadvantage gap for students aged 16 by 0.5 months from 2019 to 18.6 months in 2023 can be entirely explained by higher levels of absence for disadvantaged pupils.
The EPI research measured attainment at both key stage 2, including pupils’ average scaled scores in reading and maths in Sats tests and GCSE English and maths grades.
Emily Hunt, associate director of social mobility and vulnerable learners at EPI, said: “The widening of the disadvantage gap in the wake of the pandemic feels a familiar story by now, but our research provides new insights on what has been driving this.
“For the first time, we have shown that high and increasing levels of absence among disadvantaged pupils are the primary reason why the disadvantage gap has grown since 2019, and that the government won’t tackle the gap unless it gets to grips with the complex root causes of absence.”
The report describes how researchers have assessed how different factors have influenced the disadvantage gap at KS2 and KS4.
Looking at the disadvantage gap in secondary school, today’s report states: “We observed a reduction of the gap when incorporating absence into the model. This suggests that pupil absence has been a key driver of the gap, reflecting disadvantaged students being disproportionately affected by absence since 2019.”
Declining mental health
The report adds: “Overall, our findings suggest that absences account for the entire increase in the gap since 2019.
“However, it is important to note that absences may be symptomatic of - rather than the underlying cause of - the gap widening, which could reflect an unobserved factor (affecting both absences and attainment) such as declining mental health.”
In a speech at the Association of School and College Leaders annual conference in Liverpool last week, education secretary Bridget Phillpson called on schools to “catch up fast” to improve pupil attendance and said she would not accept the “damage” caused by children missing school.
She added that some schools are “not making enough progress” on absence rates and called for more “old-fashioned graft” to tackle the issue.
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