Schools caught in ‘standoff’ over falling pupil rolls

Schools are caught in a “standoff” between councils, government and other public services over decisions on falling pupil numbers, a House of Lords committee has been warned.

Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said local authorities, schools and NHS trusts were unable to communicate effectively on falling pupil rolls, with different bodies waiting for others to act.

ASCL had been raising the issue of falling rolls with the Department for Education for many years, he told the House of Lords Public Services Committee today. The sector is “sleepwalking into a problem that we know exists”, Mr Di’Iasio added.

There is no common platform that brings together NHS birth-rate figures, DfE school data, local authority information and housing data to support decisions about where school capacity should be reduced or expanded, he said.

Call for action on falling pupil rolls

The second evidence session of the committee’s inquiry into falling primary school rolls also heard warnings about mixed-age classes, restricted funding for falling rolls, and the retraining of teachers to work across different phases.

Mr Di’Iasio called for a national ombudsman or named decisionmaker to oversee the issue of falling rolls and the impact they have. Schools that see a drop in pupil numbers also experience a drop in per-pupil funding.

Decisions about the appropriate school capacity are currently left to whichever school “falls foul first”, he said, meaning the ones that lose parents’ confidence or see staff leave because they fear the school is not viable.

This creates the “worst of all worlds” for schools and communities, Di’Iasio said.

The ASCL leader advised that a national strategy must be established to encourage greater coherence between NHS birth-rate data, DfE data, local authority information and the work of the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.

Mixed-age classes

Schools are increasingly looking at mixed-age classes as rolls fall, the committee heard.

The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) found last year that around a quarter of schools were already using mixed-age classes.

NFER survey evidence showed that, among schools at least slightly concerned about falling rolls, around 30 per cent were looking to increase their use of mixed-age classes.

However, Jenna Julius, research director for systems and structures at the think tank, said there had been “pretty much no real new work” on mixed-age classes in England over the past 25 years.

There is also a “lack of thought and guidance” around supporting schools that are moving to mixed-age classes, as well as those already using them, she said.

The accountability system and support available to schools are geared towards single-age classes, even though mixed-age classes are already common, Ms Julius added.

Mr Di’Iasio said the shift towards mixed-age classes was not necessarily being driven by what was best for pupils, but by financial decisions.

Pupils at the “extremes” of a mixed-age class could end up either demanding the most attention or receiving the least, he said.

Retraining teachers

Falling primary rolls could create an opportunity for the DfE to think more strategically about teacher deployment across the system, the Lords committee heard.

Jon Andrews, head of analysis at the Education Policy Institute, said the post-16 sector is facing a population bulge and difficulties attracting teachers, at the same time as primary rolls are falling.

The DfE should consider whether it could do more to support teachers to move between different parts of the education system, he said.

Mr Andrews said this did not mean assuming that primary teachers could easily move into GCSE teaching or further education, but that there could be opportunities to create career routes across phases.

Mr Di’Iasio also warned that teacher supply and demand did not always align geographically, with some areas struggling to recruit while others had teachers looking for jobs.

Incentives may be required to encourage teachers to move to areas with greater need, he said.

Tourism pressure

Tourism is also affecting some schools’ ability to maintain viable catchment areas, the committee was warned.

ASCL had heard of concerns in areas such as the South West and York, where there are large numbers of homes for short-term rent such as Airbnbs, Mr Di’Iasio said.

This means families are moving out of those areas because of the impact of tourism, he said, leaving some schools without a viable catchment area.