The teacher pay review body should propose a pay rise of more than 3 per cent for next year, or signal that future recommendations will exceed average earnings growth, experts have said.
The National Foundation for Educational Research’s (NFER) proposal would exceed the 2.8 per cent recommended by the Department for Education.
This is due to “growing signs” of teacher shortages in schools having a negative impact on the quality of education for pupils in England, the NFER warns in its annual teacher labour market report.
The forthcoming Spending Review is a “crucial opportunity” for the government to provide the resources needed to deliver its target to recruit 6,500 more teachers by the end of the Parliament, the report states.
Unfilled teacher vacancies
The number of unfilled teaching vacancies in state schools reached six vacancies per 1,000 teachers in 2023-24 - double the pre-pandemic rate, the NFER finds.
Meanwhile, 15 per cent of secondary students were taught in classes of more than 30 in 2023-24, up from 10 per cent in 2015-16.
The DfE said in December in written evidence to the School Teachers’ Review Body that a 2.8 per cent pay rise for teachers in 2025-26 would “maintain the competitiveness of teachers’ pay”.
But the NFER report suggests that a 2.8 per cent pay rise from September would be “a missed opportunity to make further gains on teacher pay”.
It calls for a 2025-26 pay award for teachers which exceeds 3 per cent, as well as increases in spending on financial incentives targeting shortage subjects.
The government’s Spending Review should deliver rises in the schools budget necessary to increase teacher pay by at least 6.1 per cent from 2026-27 to 2028-29, the NFER adds.
The report comes after government figures in December showed that the number of entrants to primary school teacher training in England had fallen.
DfE data showed that 88 per cent of the government’s initial teacher training (ITT) target for primary schools was reached in 2024-25, down from 94 per cent in 2023-24.
The government achieved just 62 per cent of its postgraduate secondary ITT recruitment target in 2024-25 - and it did not meet its recruitment targets for 12 out of 17 secondary school subjects.
Last year, school teachers in England were offered a fully funded 5.5 per cent pay rise for 2024-25.
Recruitment pain ‘likely to continue’
The NFER predicts that the pattern of under-recruitment in primary and most secondary school subjects is “likely to continue” in 2025-26.
The report, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, says: “Sluggish recruitment and persistently high leaving rates have led to real impacts on schools and pupils.
“Schools have also become more reliant on unqualified teachers to fill gaps in their workforce, while non-specialist teachers teaching secondary subjects like maths and physics have become more common.”
This year is a “now or never” moment for the government to demonstrate that it will deliver its manifesto pledge to recruit 6,500 new teachers, it says.
The report adds: “The government’s focus on recruiting 6,500 additional teachers is a welcome acknowledgement of the threat to educational quality posed by the worsening teacher supply challenge in England.
“However, delivering on this ambition by the end of the current Parliament will require significant, focused policy action. Policy measures also take time to lead to impact in schools, so the time for action is now.”
Pupil behaviour is driving teacher workload
The report also warns that pupil behaviour has become “one of the fastest-growing contributors to teacher workload” since the pandemic, and a lack of access to flexible working arrangements “may be contributing” to teachers leaving the profession.
Report co-author Jack Worth, school workforce lead at the NFER, said: “Teacher recruitment and retention in England remain in a perilous state, posing a substantial risk to the quality of education.
“The time for half measures is over. Fully funded pay increases that make teacher pay more competitive are essential to keeping teachers in the classroom and attracting new recruits.
“The upcoming Spending Review provides the government with the ideal opportunity to show its long-term commitment to increase the attractiveness of teaching.
“Both schools and the government are facing budgetary challenges, so making this happen is going to need careful planning.”
Leaders should expand flexible working
The NFER report recommends that the government should develop a new approach for supporting schools to improve pupil behaviour, and it said school leaders should consider adopting a wider range of flexible working practices in their schools to improve teacher retention.
It adds that both the government’s curriculum and assessment review and proposed reforms to Ofsted inspections could increase teacher workload and worsen retention if not carefully implemented.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said: “This report sends a clear message to the government that it needs to go further and faster in not only doing more to attract new teachers, but also in retaining existing talent and, critically, experience.”
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “The government must heed this warning before it is too late. We are far beyond the point where small steps and half measures can address the scale of the recruitment and retention crisis in education.”
He added there is “no clear plan” for achieving the government’s target to recruit 6,500 teachers.
Patrick Roach, general secretary of the NASUWT teaching union, said: “The government can be in no doubt that a failure to deliver on pay and working conditions will only lead to a further decline in teacher numbers and a deterioration in the quality of education provided to children and young people.”
A DfE spokesperson said: “Recruiting and keeping great teachers in our classrooms is vital to improving life chances for all children. We are committed to resetting the relationship with the education workforce and working alongside them to re-establish teaching as an attractive, expert profession.”
The spokesperson said the DfE has made £233 million available next year towards teacher recruitment. They added that the department is also encouraging schools to allow staff to work more flexibly to help teacher wellbeing and workload.
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