Trusts face 'difficult decisions' on school closures as rolls fall

Multi-academy trusts may have to merge, repurpose or close small schools as falling pupil numbers place increasing pressure on their finances, leaders have warned.

The Queen Street Group (QSG), which represents 50 MATs running more than 1,000 schools, says demographic change is affecting “school and trust viability, budget sustainability and place planning”.

The warnings come as trusts grapple with wider financial pressures, including pay awards, rising special educational needs and disabilities costs and falling pupil numbers, according to the group’s annual report.

Earlier planning for demographic change will be increasingly important as pupil numbers fall in different parts of the country, the group says.

More collaborative models for SEND

QSG chair Sir Steve Taylor said: “Schools are facing significant change, but the important question is what we do about it.”

Finance leaders are now preparing to make “difficult strategic decisions”, including mergers, repurposing buildings or closing very small schools, the report states.

Trusts are, for example, increasingly seeking to create more collaborative models for SEND, inclusion and alternative provision as pupil needs become more complex, it says.

QSG members are developing clearer pathways between universal, targeted and specialist support, and some trusts are bringing SEND and alternative provision together to reduce fragmentation and improve pupils’ routes in and out of specialist support.

Trust-wide AI policies urged

QSG’s edtech group also urges trusts to move beyond individual experimentation with AI and establish clear trust-wide approaches.

Its recommendations include conducting supplier checks and data protection impact assessments, appointing AI champions, training staff and retaining human oversight of decisions.

The report also highlights cybersecurity as a growing risk and recommends that trusts rehearse their response to an attack before one happens, including checking CCTV, building management and cashless catering.

Sir Steve said: “This report shows leaders getting to grips with some very practical challenges.

“How do you plan ahead when pupil numbers are falling? How do you organise support differently as SEND needs become more complex? And how do you make sensible use of AI when the technology is moving faster than policy and training?”

QSG also announced that Rowena Hackwood, CEO of Astrea Academy Trust, will become its executive chair and Cathie Paine, CEO of REAch2 Academy Trust, will become chair of the board in November, when Sir Steve’s term as chair ends.

Sir Steve will remain on the QSG board.