Headteachers fear that tomorrow’s GCSE results will leave them polishing their CVs and waiting in the queue at the job centre.

Many have heard rumours that there will be a 20 percentage-point difference between the number of 4-9 grades in English and maths nationally, and the number of 5-9 grades.

Vic Goddard, head of Passmores Academy in Essex, said that colleagues had reported differences of up to 30 percentage points between the proportion of 4-9 and 5-9 grades.

“This obviously leads to the question of what are Ofsted and the regional schools commissioners going to use?” he said. 

“If they are going to stick to 9-5, then the job-centre queue may be quite a bit longer.”

And Stephen Tierney, chair of the Headteachers Roundtable thinktank, said: “The first people I spoke to today were in a bit of a panic. Nobody knows quite where they are.

“Because nobody’s quite certain, there’s a tendency to be nervous.”

‘Sword of Damocles’

In a letter published earlier this year, education secretary Justine Greening referred to grade 4 and above as a “standard pass”, and grade 5 and above as a “strong pass”.

She wrote: “Achievement at the ‘strong pass’ will be one of the benchmarks used to measure the performance of schools.”

But, says Libby Nicholas, chief executive of the Astrea Academy Trust, this has only created additional uncertainty for headteachers. “Are schools going to be judged on grade 4s or 5s?” she said. “It will be interesting to see the next round of Ofsted reports.”

Mr Tierney: “There’s this big sword of Damocles hanging over us, of accountability. Some heads are thinking, ‘I’m going to get my P45’.”

All grades count towards the main DfE school accountability measure - Progress 8. But that has not stopped schools from worrying about how they will be judged on a lack of grade 5s.

Headteachers will not find out their Progress 8 scores until the autumn.

Mr Goddard says that he has been compulsively putting this year’s results through last year’s Progress 8 scores, even though he knows that the formula is no longer relevant.

“We’re in limbo land,” he said. “I’ve got all my results in front of me, and I think, ‘What does that mean for me, as a school?’ I don’t know whether to feel satisfied or suicidal. I’m fluctuating rapidly from one to the other.”

‘Muddied waters’

A headteacher in the North-West of England, who asked to remain anonymous, said that this emphasis on grade 5 has complicated matters severely.

“Our grade 4-9s are where we expected them to be,” he said. “What’s muddied the waters is grade 5-9 - it’s hard to know how we fit into the national picture.

“Grade 5 isn’t quite a B, but it’s not quite the same as a C. So we’re not comparing like with like. I’m worried there isn’t a level playing field for headteachers.”

 An Ofsted spokesperson said that the inspectorate is aware that exam results are only a partial reflection of what goes on in a school. For that reason, inspectors do not rely merely on published exam data when making their judgements.

“We understand that there is always more school-level volatility in results when qualifications change,” she said. “So we are providing inspectors with guidance, specific training and support from our data-analyst team about what they can and can’t infer from individual schools’ exam results this year.

“Schools can be assured that we will always use data as a signpost, not a destination for inspection, and that we appreciate this year’s data may be more variable at school level than usual.”

The Department for Education has been contacted for comment.

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