Is it wrong that I have a great affection towards Anne Milton, the apprenticeships minister, for the admission that she has “absolutely no idea” how the government’s flagship target of three million apprenticeships starts was set? There’s something refreshing about a politician making a slightly embarrassing revelation without any hint of spin.

Lord Turnbull came out with a similarly frank gobsmacker at the same hearing of the House of Lords Economic Affairs Select Committee, confessing that: “Nick Boles [former skills minister] had said the previous target was two million and we needed a new one so we decided it was three million.”

Brilliant. At least there’s nothing important riding on this magicked up number. Oh, wait…

Thank goodness I’m not allowed near any sort of policy discussion, or the target would have been anything between seven new apprenticeship starts and 25 bazillion, depending on my mood. Still, at least a target of seven new ones by 2020 would have had us all patting ourselves on the back early on.

‘Fingers-crossed figure’

I think most people jokingly assumed that the three million was a fingers-crossed figure plucked out of the mahogany scented air of a Westminster office. To learn it was gave me a comforting sense of “no one really knows what they’re on about so let’s all just do our best”. Though perhaps one would hope that the people who lead the country, whose decisions shape our lives, have a responsibility to be less clueless than the rest of us. Alas, not.

The magic number cropped up in the Conservative election manifesto of 2015 to demonstrate that they had their sleeves rolled up for another crack at education and training. I wonder how much the constant repetition of the word ”apprentice” from all parties throughout that election was also a linguistic hot button, speaking to the nostalgia of older generations who remember their time as an apprentice fondly. And after all, most people know what an apprentice is: Mickey Mouse was one to his local sorcerer for heaven’s sake, so how bad could it be? Much more “of the people” than confusing chatter about skills, colleges and further education.

I get that it’s good to have a goal to work towards and I do like a barometer to measure my progress, but maybe the word “ambition” would have been more useful than “target”? “Target” suggests the number has been arrived at through high-level calculation, long-term projections, graphs that professors tap a long stick at - that sort of thing. “Target” has clout, more galloping intent than “ambition”, but it is wholly undermined if it turns out the target number is based on guesswork.

Apprenticeships agenda

It would be easy to shake my fist at a government who would do so little research to come to a number that has rattled round the sector since to was first carelessly wanged into the manifesto.

It would be easy to say that such giant sweeping targets are just PR, not based in reality, not achievable.

Does it matter, if the thing it achieves is to push the conversation forward? I believe it’s been useful as a headline number to keep on referring back to and therefore keep apprenticeships in the forefront of the education and political agenda. So on that note, maybe the three million is a success story already, whether or not the “target” is reached.

Sarah Simons works in colleges and adult community education in the East Midlands - and is the director of UKFEchat. She tweets @MrsSarahSimons

Want to keep up with the latest education news and opinion? Follow Tes FE News on Twitter, like us on Facebook and follow us on LinkedIn