Government estimates of demand for pupil mental health services may have dramatically underestimated the scale of the problem, and efforts to improve access are falling short of targets, the National Audit Office (NAO) has warned.

A new report published by the watchdog today warns that even if current plans to expand services hit their targets, the government could still be unable to meet the ballooning demand for mental health support among under-18s.

It quotes “the most up-to-date estimate” from 2015, showing that only around a quarter of children and young people who needed support from mental health services can access those services.

The government has committed £1.4 billion to ensure that 35 per cent of children and young people in need are treated for mental health issues by 2020-21, equivalent to helping an additional 70,000 people a year.

This was based on the last survey of children’s mental health needs from 2004, which found that around 10 per cent of five- to-16-year-olds had a condition that required support and only around a quarter had access to the services they need.

But the NAO suggests that a new survey, due to be published late this year, is likely to find a far higher demand for services, meaning that the government will have an even higher target to meet at a time when it is already struggling to make headway.

Lack of child mental health support

The report says that if demand is 50 per cent higher than the 2004 estimate, this would mean NHS England would have to treat an additional 186,000 children and young people to achieve an access rate of 35 per cent by 2020-21.

“The government urgently needs to set out how departments, and national and local bodies, are going to work together to achieve its long-term ambition,” said Meg Hillier, chair of the Commons Public Accounts Committee.

“The government currently estimates that less than a third of children and young people with a diagnosable mental health condition are receiving treatment. But the government doesn’t understand how many children and young people are in need of treatment or how funding is being spent locally.”

The report comes amid a raft of new studies on the state of children’s wellbeing ahead of World Mental Health day on Wednesday, 10 October.

Research from charity Parentkind found that three out of five parents were worried about their child’s mental health at school, and warned that bullying, exams and homework were heaping stress on pupils.

A survey by the Education Policy Institute thinktank also showed that referrals to child and adolescent mental health services had jumped by more than a quarter in the past five years, and tens of thousands of children were falling through the gaps.