Secondary pupils projected to rise by a fifth in a decade

New government statistics also project a 650,000 rise in overall pupil numbers by 2026.
13th July 2017, 10:43am

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Secondary pupils projected to rise by a fifth in a decade

https://www.tes.com/magazine/archive/secondary-pupils-projected-rise-fifth-decade
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The number of pupils in England’s schools is expected to rise by more than 650,000 in just under a decade, new forecasts published by the Department for Education suggest.

Government statistics out today estimate that the number of children in all state-funded schools will increase by 8.7 per cent by 2026 - from 7,490,000 this year to 8,144,000 by 2026.

And by 2026, it is predicted that there will be 534,000 more pupils in secondary school than this year - a rise of 19.1 per cent over the 2017-2026 projection period.

The increase in numbers has been fuelled by a baby boom that began in 2002. The large numbers that have been passing through the primary sector are now entering secondary schools.

The numbers in secondary schools began to rise last year and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, the latest figures show that the rise in the number of primary school pupils will flatten out around 2020.

Last year, Tes revealed that a bulge in pupil numbers of secondary age across the country meant some school catchment areas had shrunk to less than a kilometre.

The latest DfE report says: “Changes in the school age population are largely driven by the birth rate. Direct immigration of pupils born outside the UK has a very small effect on the school-age population.”

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