It is, therefore, a target to be hit. The end-game is 2010 but credibility will plummet if progress is not made from the present 37 per cent baseline by the time of the next election.

The Department for Education and Skills has placed the 50 per cent HE target at the heart of its plans to 2006, and it is taking centre stage in funding council strategies.

The latest DFES grant letter to the Higher Education Funding Council for England refers to “a historic commitment” and “a challenging target”. Similarly, the Learning and Skills Council grant letter states that a key priority for 200203 is to “develop appropriate progression routes into higher education” to contribute to the 50 per cent target.

Getting the target into the bloodstream of our funding councils is commendable, but it puts the cart before the horse. The 14 to 19 consultation paper will be published shortly. Another on the future of HE funding is promised, and it would be useful if the parallel review of the structure of HE was released.

Yet the danger is that they will fail to consider “14 to 30” education and training policy in the round, and perpetuate an unbalanced debate on the 50 per cent HE target which has already resulted in premature conclusions.

No 10, the Treasury and HEFCE are obsessed with full-time undergraduates. These account for 70 per cent of the full-time equivalent HE population, and 75 per cent of these are young (18 to 21).

The middle-classes are more likely to enter HE than people from working-class families. If, however, those least likely to participate do so at the average rate for young undergraduates as a whole, 100,000 additional HE places could be demanded, more or less the number needed to hit the 50 per cent target.

Currently 51 per cent of 19-year-olds achieve level 3 (A-level or equivalent) qualifications, of which 30 per cent enter HE before 21. If a large proportion of the remaining 21 per cent could be encouraged to forgo employment and enter full-time HE immediately - sweetened by the abolition of up-front tuition fees and a mixed system of maintenance grants and loans - the target would be there for the hitting.

But of course 51 per cent is too close for comfort, and so increasing the “pool” of young people with level 3 qualifications is sensible.

Success, so the argument goes, depends upon HE institutes creating “big partnerships” with local schools and colleges, to encourage young people to study A and AS-levels - the qualifications most likely to gain HE entry. And to tackle financial barriers, means-tested allowances should be made available across the country.

From this perspective, the overriding priority of the HE target is to widen participation among young people studying full-time. Some might take full-time vocational sub-degrees, but a greater supply of young adults with level 4 qualifications should increase long-term labour productivity.

However, this view leaves little room for the skills or part-time agendas, despite the Treasury and DFES accepting the recommendation of the Cassels Review that 28 per cent of 16 to 21-year-olds should participate in apprenticeships by 2004.

But Cassels makes clear that progression from apprenticeships to HE will be via part-time rather than full-time foundation degrees. Progression by young people with GNVQvocational A-levels might also be part-time. Both want jobs, and trading a wage for income-contingent loans looks like a poor deal.

Unfortunately Cassels reinforces the view that progression to HE will follow on immediately after apprenticeships. But many workers might wish to undertake part-time foundation degrees later on.

In terms of the 50 per cent target, entry can take place at 30 and so the achievement of level 3 qualifications can continue until 29. A level 3 attainment strategy should cover 22 to 29-year-olds and not just 14 to 21-year-olds.

The former strategy should build on the upgraded New Deal for young people, and the Performance and Innovation Unit report on workforce development which suggests discretionary funding for level 3 training. What is missing is LSC-funded adult apprenticeships, especially for those below 30.

Mark Corney is director of MC Consultancy