What’s the endgame when it comes to the government’s grammar school policy?

And what will come of its plans to force independent schools to do more to work with the state sector?

The education sector is in a state of suspended animation. Until three weeks ago, heads and educationists had been frantically attempting to work out which bits of the controversial education green paper were going to make it into the expected white paper, and then potentially law.

The state sector was largely concerning itself over whether the government was really serious about its plans to roll out selective secondary education across the country.

Meanwhile, in the independent sector, they were running around trying to work out how far they should go pushing back against No 10’s insistence that their schools work much more closely with their maintained cousins - or, if not, risk losing their much-cherished charitable status.

And then - KABOOM - the election was called, taking just about everyone - possibly including the PM herself - by surprise.

An idea takes flight

Now, instead of waiting on the White Paper, we wait for the Tory Manifesto, which, no doubt, will have pointers to the government’s direction of thinking when it comes to schools.

But where will we actually end up? The gap between Theresa May’s announcement and the manifesto’s publication has given education folk an opportunity to consolidate their thinking, and I think a pathway is beginning to emerge through the pre-election battlefield.

Let’s fly this kite. 

This scenario is predicated on a couple of assumptions: firstly, that Theresa May will emerge victorious on June 10 and, secondly, that her and her team are determined to really push the selection agenda as far as they can - that that they won’t just settle for a handful of new grammar schools, as some in education have suggested they might.

It is also based on the assumption that a Tory government will continue to set its targets on the independent sector, but is unenthusiastic about the cataclysmic idea of legislating to force private schools into partnerships and then watching a good few of them walk away from charitable status rather than doing the PM’s bidding.

So, here goes. More than one sector face has suggested to me that if push came to shove, the big public schools - largely gathered into the HMC organisation - might be willing to consider sponsoring and supporting new selective free schools or existing comprehensives that decide to convert to grammar status.

They would only do it under the circumstances that allowed them to do it on their own terms - probably through a sector-wide memorandum of understanding that fell short of the legislation that would send many big public schools running for the hills.

The political perks of the plan

As part of any such deal, many HMC members would be keen to ensure that any selective school they took on was a long way from their catchment, for fear of cannibalising their own market - especially in the outside the south-east, where the schools are hardly overrun with applications.

The last thing going for this idea from the perspective of big independents schools - apart from getting ministers off their back - is that it allows them to maintain their position that they are not qualified to advise on mainstream state education. Selective schools, on the other hand, they reckon they could handle.

The political advantages for the government are many. Most obviously, such a proposition covers off two key element of the green paper: lots of new grammar schools and increased indie involvement in state schools. 250 HMC schools in England: 250 new grammars. With this plan, there’s scale. 

A further advantage is that most, if not all, major MATs and academy chains have said they can’t or won’t open or sponsor new selective schools - HMC schools could fill this gaping hole in government strategy.

It also makes sense within the context of Nick Timothy, the prime minister’s joint chief of staff, and the man most credited with driving through the green paper. Many who know him say his commitment to the policies is driven by his experiences as a school boy at a grammar school that was part of the private-state mixed King Edward’s federation in Birmingham. The idea of such hybrid federations cropping up across the country would make sense within that context and is suitably revolutionary in scale for a prime minister keen to be seen as ambitious.

It gives me no great pleasure to write this - I am no fan of selective education - but it does make sense in policy terms. And it keeps many interested parties relatively happy.

Want to keep up with the latest education news and opinion? Follow Tes on Twitter and like Tes on Facebook