GCSE maths courses could be scrapped for the majority of pupils in the next five years unless the shortage of teachers is halted, a leading academic has predicted.

Schools are struggling with a chronic shortage of mathematicians, filling gaps with non-specialist teachers who have not studied the subject beyond A-level.

Professor Tony Gardiner, from the school of mathematics at Birmingham University, said the number of maths-qualified teachers at key stage 3 is as low as 25 per cent.

He bases his findings on a Department for Education and Skills survey in 1992 that showed that fewer than 40 per cent of those teaching secondary maths had a qualification involving a significant amount of maths. Most of these were teaching the 16-19-year-olds.

His figures suggest the situation is even worse than that outlined in an Open University Centre for Mathematics Education report. It said up to 45 per cent of staff teaching the subject to 11-14-year-olds have limited knowledge of maths and little or no training.

Professor Gardiner said the situation is likely to worsen as sixth forms report high drop-out rates following poor AS-level results this year. This means fewer students progressing to a maths degree. “Radical changes in schools continue to be rushed through without considering their impact on maths and on the supply and retention of maths teachers,” he said.

“We are facing the situation where academic maths courses will no longer be an entitlement for all.” Simon Singh, author of best-seller Fermat’s Last Theorem, agreed, saying qualified maths specialists would cover GCSE and A-levels while non-specialists would teach basic numeracy to the rest.

A survey of 162 maths undergraduates from Leeds University and King’s College, London, found two-thirds would not consider a career in maths teaching. Students were put off by perceptions of low salary, slow career progression, abuse from pupils, workload and stress.

The DFES said it recognised the challenge, and initiatives such as “golden hellos” and the fast track scheme were designed to help.“In January 2001, 98 per cent of teaching posts in maths were filled and applications for maths PGCE courses are 14 per cent up on this time last year,” it said.

However, figures released this week show acceptances to maths courses in England and Wales were up only 6.2 per cent - an additional 69 trainees. Overall, despite a 15.8 per cent increase in applications for postgraduate courses, acceptances were up only 4.2 per cent, an additional 561 recruits.

John Howson, a recruitment expert, says an additional 6,000 teachers will be needed next September to cope with rising pupil numbers and to fill vacancies and posts covered by supply staff.

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