Student numbers at Scottish colleges could once again be under pressure as figures from an exclusive TESS survey reveal that more than half of colleges are yet to meet their recruitment targets.

Of the 19 colleges that responded, 10 reported that they had so far recruited fewer full-time students for 2016-17 than they had last year. And 12 of them are still short of their target for full-time student places.

Although colleges expect to enrol further students in the coming weeks and in January 2017, the figures indicate that student numbers could once again have dropped significantly, with a total of 1,770 fewer enrolments this year (see box, “College recruitment in stats”, below).

Vonnie Sandlan, president of NUS Scotland, said that a drop in recruitment, compared with what colleges thought they would provide, deserved “serious attention”. Colleges around the country and the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) should work together to better understand changes in provision and demand, she said.

“As well as addressing the number of students going to college, it’s equally important that we address the support available to these students when they get to college,” she said. This was to prevent them taking on debt, working unreasonable hours that affect their studies, or dropping out of education altogether, “which is simply a waste of talent and a great loss for Scotland”.

‘Activity target’

Colleges calculate the number of students they aim to recruit from the “activity target” agreed between their college region and the SFC, as this decides their core funding. They also consider other factors, such as the availability of funds and political priorities. Recruitment targets can therefore vary year on year.

Among the colleges that supplied a target for this year and last, almost all are working towards a lower number of students this year.

The figures obtained by TESS also show the differing priorities across the sector. At some colleges, just over a third of all full-time provision is advanced provision - meaning it is at HNC or HND level - while at others, it is closer to 50 per cent. At West Lothian College, 36 per cent of enrolments this year were for higher education. Glasgow Kelvin College had the highest proportion of higher-education provision, with 48 per cent.

Last month, a report by Audit Scotland showed that student numbers across the country had decreased by 41 per cent in eight years. It also found that, in 2014-15, the SFC sought to recover funding from Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway and Edinburgh for not reaching their targets. Edinburgh College was unable to supply figures for the TESS survey, but a spokesman said that enrolment was still ongoing and it would be able to give the full picture on student numbers in November.

A spokeswoman for the SFC said: “Student numbers have fallen in recent years when measured in headcounts. When measured in full-time equivalents, the figures are more stable. If any college falls short, their shortfall may be picked up by others in the sector.”

@JBelgutay