A joint analysis by TES and data firm SchoolDash reveals which areas are most vulnerable to forced academisation of their schools under the Department for Education’s revised proposals.
The analysis shows that local authorities such as northeast Lincolnshire, Hull and Bromley are among those most likely to lose control of all their schools.
By contrast, Kensington and Chelsea, North Tyneside and Trafford could remain as islands of local authority-maintained schools.
Education secretary Nicky Morgan is still planning to convert all schools run by local authorities that fall into one of two categories. The first is authorities in which a “critical mass” of academies has already been reached and the second is authorities in which schools are deemed to be “underperforming”.
Our study highlights the country’s “red zones” – local authority areas where massed forced academisation is most likely because they fulfil both conditions.
Exactly how performance will be measured has yet to be finalised. So, to give as complete a picture as possible, TES has plotted the proportion of existing academies in each local authority against three potential performance indicators.
The study looks at the percentage of schools in local authorities with good or outstanding Ofsted ratings (pictured), the percentage of primary pupils achieving level 4 at key stage 2 and the percentage of secondary students achieving five A*-C grades at GCSE, including English and maths.
In each of the scatter charts (to see all three, read this week's issue), councils closest to the bottom right-hand corner are likely to be hit first by complete forced academisation because they have a high percentage of existing academies and their performance is relatively low.
To see the full analysis, pick up the 20 May edition of TES. This week's TES magazine is available in all good newsagents. To download the digital edition, Android users can click here and iOS users can click here