But many TES readers will remember similarly apocalyptic forecasts at the same time in most recent years. Local authority leaders have claimed so often that “next year is the worst ever”, that it is impossible to be sure just how tough 1995-96 will be. In reality, as each April has arrived, teacher numbers have not been “slashed”, and spending on some elements of schools has actually increased.

Teacher numbers have remained surprisingly stable in recent years, rising from 358,000 in 1990 to 361,000 in 1994. Of course, the number of pupils has risen by about 4 per cent in the same period. As a result, primary pupil-teacher ratios got worse, rising from 22.0 in 1990 to 22.7 in 1994. (The respective deterioration in secondary schools was from 15.4 to 16.4.) Even some non-teaching areas of expenditure have held up amazingly well. Real spending on support staff and on books and equipment rose significantly in the early 1990s - presumably as a result of the national curriculum.

Repairs budgets have, however, been cut. But it is likely that from 1994-95 onwards overall spending on books, equipment, repairs, maintenance and support staff will show no growth, with the possibility of real-terms cuts if the Government sets teachers’ pay increases ahead of the cash-spending rises available to authorities and schools.

The Government now has national control over local authority spending, the teachers’ pay settlement and the full range of legislative demands on councils and schools. It will become common for ministers to set an overall local authority spending cap of, say, 1 per cent and, in the same year, allow teachers’ pay to increase by 3 per cent. The difference will have to be paid for by reduced teacher numbers, cuts in non-teacher costs or by shifting resources from other local authority services.

What will happen in 1995-96? The first thing to note is that the settlement really is very tight. Most education authorities cannot raise their expenditure, in cash, by more than 0.5 per cent. With inflation - and pay rises - likely to be in the range of 2 to 3 per cent during the year, a cash rise of 0.5 per cent will lead to reductions in staffing and, in education, will further threaten vulnerable items such as repairs and maintenance.

Mrs Shephard has made much of the fact that the education Standard Spending Assessment - a vital element in each council’s grant and expenditure cap calculation - has risen by more than the SSAs for other services. Education SSA will rise 1.2 per cent in 1995-96 (over 1994-95), compared with zero for social services, fire and highway maintenance. The SSA for all local government services is up 0.6 per cent in 1995-96.

In reality, the Secretary of State’s enthusiasm should be qualified. First, because of changes in police funding, the SSA increase is not as good a guide to the relative treatment of services as it would normally be. Police spending is certainly being more generously treated in 1995-96 than education.

Second, even if the education SSA has risen by more than those for other services, there is no guarantee the money will be spent on schools. There is no “earmarking” of the SSA or grant. Third, a rise of 1.1 per cent in education SSA is, anyway, less than half the rate of forecast inflation.

So, while it would be churlish not to acknowledge the DFE’s relative success in ensuring that education will receive a slightly larger slice of a somewhat smaller cake, now is probably not the time to organise celebrations. Except, of course, if you are at the DFE itself. The table below compares the 0.5 per cent spending rise given to local government for 1995-96 with those for DFE and other departments which have responsibilities that overlap with local government.

Whitehall departments were clearly relatively effective at winning expenditure rises for the services that fall within their direct control. Thus, the DFE’s own spending (which includes further and higher education, student loans and central administration) is planned to increase by 4.1 per cent in 1995-96. Even if schools obtained every penny of their SSA, they would receive only 1. 2 per cent on top of this year’s spending. A rise of between 0.5 per cent and 0.75 per cent is most likely.

The relatively generous treatment of the DFE’s own programme makes the position of grant-maintained schools look curious, pivoted as they are between (in some cases) receiving resources that reflect local authority decisions and (in others) being financed by the Funding Agency for Schools. In so far as GM schools remain linked directly with council funding, they will suffer the random consequences of “tough” rate support grant settlements.

But once such schools reach the sunlit uplands of the FAS and its Common Funding Formula, it would be open to the Government to use the CFF for transition protection in such a way as to encourage more opting out.

1995-96 will be a difficult time for schools and for their maintaining authorities. But recent experience suggests education provision will not, in any sense, break down. Indeed the schools system has proved amazingly adept at coping with change and constraint. Performance indicators continue - in many cases - to improve.

Local authorities and schools face an awkward public relations task. On the one hand, they want to convince the hard-hearted Treasury that enough is enough. Decently modern education cannot continue to be provided with the resources currently available. On the other hand, the same schools and authorities have to extol the virtues of their provision.

Urban schools must compete with each other for pupils. All schools wish to give encouragement to their pupils. Councillors want to be re-elected. No one is likely to launch a campaign to say their schools are failing.

So the Government remains on safe ground for the time being. The 1995-96 finance settlement probably is the toughest ever for local authorities and schools. But, as in the past, they will cope, somehow.

The future may not be so easy for the Government; with continued economic growth and tightening of the labour market, teachers will expect both their pay and conditions to improve. When that moment arrives there could be trouble. 1996-97, which will almost certainly be election year, is likely to be much more difficult.

Tony Travers is director of a research centre at the London School of Economics.