Scotland. Schools will not sink under the toughest settlement ever, predicts Tony Travers, but the Government might. Government spending curbs and a teachers’ pay rise are forcing Scottish education authorities to contemplate drastic cuts.
Scottish teachers recently accepted a pay deal that will give them an extra 5.1 per cent over two years.
Although the award was backdated to April of last year, few authorities were able to make any provision for the pay rise in their 1994-95 budgets. It will therefore have to be financed entirely out of the 1995-96 budgets.
Ian Lang, the Scottish Secretary, said last month that local authority funding would increase by 1.1 per cent during the coming financial year, but the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities claims that spending is actually being cut by 0.5 per cent (this discrepancy arises because of the extra cost to authorities of community care).
The TES survey, which attracted responses from 11 of the 12 Scottish education authorities, suggests that Strathclyde will be the worst hit. The biggest LEA in Europe, it may have to cut its spending by Pounds 30 million.
Depute education director Keir Bloomer said: “We are facing a very severe financial crisis which is not made easier by the teachers’ pay rise. We are in the process of setting budgets at the moment and the pay settlement is an important factor.”
Rolls are set to rise by about 1 per cent this year, which means Strathclyde will also have to find more teachers to avoid breaching the maximum class sizes for Scottish schools (33 in primary schools and the first two years of secondary; 30 for older pupils).
At the other end of the scale, the smallest authority, Orkney, which has just 27 schools, also predicts “a heap of cuts” and warns that teachers’ jobs could be at risk. Headteachers and school boards in Scotland do not have control over staffing levels even where a school in under a pilot scheme of devolved management (all schools are due to have devolved powers by 1996). The onus of making cuts therefore falls on the local authority.) Education director Jim Anderson said: “This is a hot issue with us and we have not yet decided on our strategy. We part-funded the pay rise last year but we still have to find Pounds 185,000 this coming year. On top of that there will be a further Pounds 200,000 needed for growth, including rising rolls.”
Two authorities, Tayside and Borders, are already offering an early retirement package to staff aged over 50.
Tayside depute education director Norman Erskine warned that each 1 per cent of the pay deal is costing the authority Pounds 1 million.
He said:“The situation will be particularly difficult in 1995-96 when we will face cuts of around 6 per cent. We are tackling this by trying to save on administration costs and leaving vacancies unfilled. Staff have been offered early severance but it could be that with cuts of this magnitude compulsory redundancies will be difficult to avoid.”
Borders depute education director Donald Gordon painted a similar picture.
All service committees have been asked to levy cuts of up to 5 per cent and an early retirement package is planned.
Fife is taking up the issue of funding with the Scottish Secretary of State. Education director Brian Welsh warned: “We don’t yet know what our capping level will be but we don’t think we have been given sufficient funds.”
Lothian financed part of last year’s teachers’ pay award but still needs to find Pounds 3.5 million for this year’s settlement. Class sizes are also going up with a 2.8 per cent increase in the secondary sector and 2.4 per cent in primary schools expected.
Highland region is carrying forward a Pounds 1.4m overspend from 1994-95 after making some cuts. Dumfries and Galloway is anticipating cuts of Pounds 7m across the whole council but is hoping to avoid compulsory redundancies.
