Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s bold introduction of the furlough scheme has been universally applauded as the right thing to do, in tune with the severity of the crisis at the time. It was implemented very quickly and effectively, has cost an eye-watering amount of money and was extended to run into the autumn in a slightly amended form.

This week, the chancellor has the chance to take the same bold action on education, skills and jobs. There are some signs that this is likely, with a few announcements and funding commitments already made that look a little like he is teasing us with some appetisers before the main course. Alternatively, of course, they could be the main dish itself.  We’ll find out on Wednesday.

News: Colleges to receive £200m in capital funding

Background: Traineeships to get £111m boost from Treasury

Johnson: Young people to get ‘opportunity guarantee’

Urging investment

It can’t be easy for the chancellor, though, given how many reports have been published in recent weeks urging this investment or another to secure the rebuild, recovery, renewal, revival, bounce back/forward/onward or building back better. We’re just as complicit in having our own plan, as well as supporting some others in their collective plans. It’s felt like everyone and anyone has felt the need to advise, as if publishing plans was soon to be outlawed so we all needed to get them out fast.

Having said that, there are some good reasons why we and others felt the need. The scale of the crisis we are in is beyond anything any of us have seen before and therefore the need for radical and creative solutions is sky high.

For those of us in post-16 education and skills, the numbers that describe this crisis are incredible, so the solutions and the investment must be, too. Last week, IPPR added their twopenn’orth with a good report that suggests that youth unemployment will surge by 600,000 to reach 1 million by Christmas. This was based on analysis by Kathleen Henehan at the Resolution Foundation that, based on overall forecasts of unemployment this year, this crisis will result in a “13 per cent lower likelihood of a graduate being in employment three years after having left education”.

“For those with mid-level (some higher education or an A-level- equivalent education) and lower-level (GCSE-equivalent or below) qualifications, these figures are 27 and 37 per cent, respectively. In other words, the current crisis may reduce the employment chances of lower-skilled young adults leaving education by more than a third.”

In addition, there are serious impacts on pay, mental wellbeing and lost learning, all reinforcing inequalities in educational achievement at every level. Throw into all this the forecasts that overall unemployment might reach its highest level since the Great Depression and it’s easy to see what has driven the flurry of reports offering the chancellor advice.

Colleges and their students welcomed a bringing forward of capital investment of £200 million last week, which will help address digital hardware needs and adaptations. Today, the £111 million on an extended traineeship programme will help up to 45,000 young people. Both good to have in the stocks before the main course, but it really does need to serve up something bolder and more significant.

Last month’s announcement of £1 billion investment in catch-up learning for schools was a welcome step, but nothing for colleges and 16- to 18-year-olds was a glaring omission. That would be part of a main course, along with a full-time programme for 18- and 19-year-olds to give them the opportunity of an extra year in college to learn skills that will help them get jobs in sectors that might be recruiting first - health, social care, construction, engineering, manufacturing, logistics, digital. Add to that an incentive to employers to take on a new apprentice, and we are starting to deliver a true opportunity guarantee for young people, as promised by the prime minister in his speech last week.

But for a full meal, I’d like to see some actions for adults. With some of the 9 million on furlough unlikely to return to work and unemployment overall to be somewhere like 3.5 million to 4 million according to a range of forecasters, there is a big challenge. Intensive training to help people move sector, higher-level training to address long-term skills shortages in key sectors and more work with employers to support them to keep apprentices in work are all vital.

Our pragmatic and costed plan, which we are confident can help around 750,000 people, would need in excess of £3 billion on top of the money already announced. In normal times, that would be a phenomenal ask, but given the scale of the crisis, it looks modest.

There are also several labour market investments that are needed, including more advice and coaching, which was also announced over the weekend. But again, we are hoping for a lot more on Wednesday. 

The chancellor made a bold move to invest in furlough, which is costing as much as £10 billion per month, so we need a bold announcement from him now to address the skills needed in a very tough labour market. We’ve had the starter; I am hoping for a hefty main course on Wednesday.

David Hughes is chief executive of the Association of Colleges. He tweets @AoCDavidH