Newly-trained teachers could be priced out of the market by government reforms which aim to make their life easier.
From September, they will be entitled to the equivalent of a day out of the classroom every week in their induction year - twice the amount they get now and double the time the rest of the profession will get.
This means schools have to provide cover for them, potentially making them more expensive to employ than teachers in their second year. Professor John Howson, recruitment analyst, said: "Paying the slightly higher salary for a more experienced member of staff will be worth it for some headteachers."
Government figures show there were 2,110 primary teaching vacancies in January 2001 compared to 740 in January this year. Yet figures from the Teacher Training Agency show the numbers training as primary teachers rose from 12,469 in 2001 to 16,537 this year.
So far this year, 1,908 NQT-level primary jobs have been advertised in The TES.