Pupil numbers are set to fall significantly over the next 10 years - by 13 per cent in primary schools and up to 7 per cent in secondaries. Projections show the number of pupils attending publicly funded primaries falling from 437,000 to 380,000 by 2009.
Secondary numbers will drop from 313,200 to 292,400 assuming staying-on rates remain the same. If more pupils stay on beyond 16, however, the figure will be just 2 per cent.
The problem of keeping early years class sizes below 30 will diminish over the 10 years as primary 1 numbers fall from 60,700 to 54,100. Rolls in S1 will go down from 60,900 to 54,400.