A thinktank has questioned whether the Conservative’s focus on ordinary working families could “drag away” resources from pupils who are more in need of help.

Since Theresa May became prime minister, the government has said it will champion “ordinary working families”, who it says would benefit from the proposed opening of new grammar schools.

Researchers at the Education Policy Institute (EPI) today published an analysis of the election manifestos of the three main parties, highlighting policies they say could have positive or negative effects on educational outcomes (see below).

It says the way the Department for Education defines ordinary working families “identifies in effect the ‘average child’”, at the centre of the income distribution of children in state schools.

It says their outcomes are slightly above average for England, with an Attainment 8 score of 51.6, compared to 38.9 and 43.5 for children eligible for free school meals and the pupil premium, respectively.

The researchers write: “This group is therefore completely distinct from the group that is both economically and educationally disadvantaged.

“It is unclear on what basis and how the ordinary working families should be targeted for additional support, and whether this would draw away focus from the most disadvantaged group, whose educational outcomes most obviously lag behind.”

The government has said its planned new grammar schools would help children from all backgrounds.

Last month, education secretary Justine Greening said: “The new schools that we will create will support young people from every background, not the privileged few. Young people on free school meals - and those eligible for pupil premium. Young people from ordinary working families that are struggling to get by. I want these new schools to work for everyone.

“This will be a new model of grammars - truly open to all. We will insist on that. And it will reflect the choices of local parents and communities.”

Conservative manifesto

The EPI report highlights five Tory promises researchers say would be likely to have a beneficial impact on educational outcomes:

• A proposed early years capital funding pot to help primary schools develop nurseries.
• Plans for a baseline assessment to help properly measure progress and school performance.
• Introducing a national funding formula in which no schools would lose funding.
• A commitment to review schools’ admissions policies.
• A review of the funding of tertiary education.

It also highlights five areas of concern:

• A real terms cut in per-pupil funding of around 3 per cent over the course of the Parliament.
• No clear estimate of how much some new policies would cost, and whether they were included in the £4 billion promised for schools over the next five years.
• A lack of evidence for the proposed focus on ordinary working families.
• A commitment to remove the ban on grammar schools.
• No mention of supporting pupils with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND).

Labour manifesto

The researchers highlight five policies they say are likely to improve educational outcomes:

• A planned real terms per pupil increase in school funding of around 6 per cent over the next parliament.
• Introducing a national funding formula in which no schools would lose funding.
• Parity of funding for 16- to 18-year-olds that would put them on a more equal footing with 11- to 16-year-old pupils.
• A pledge for a new SEND strategy, to help vulnerable learners, combined with extra resources to tackle mental health issues in schools.
• Some planned steps to raise the quality of early years education.

It also highlights five areas of concern:

• No clear strategy to improve capacity in the early years to deliver “an expensive increase in provision that could therefore deliver only modest impacts on attainment”.
• A risk an infant class-size cap of 30 pupils could result in significant capital costs or compromise parental choice, without clear benefits for attainment.
• The cost of abolishing tuition fees “badly targets some of the country’s most significant educational challenges”.
• The opposition to a baseline assessment, which “may risk development of a more rational accountability system for schools”.
• “Significant funding risks” about raising the money to pay for the commitments.

Liberal Democrat manifesto

EPI highlights four policies it believes could have a positive impact on educational outcomes:

• Increasing the early years pupil premium to £1,000 per eligible child, per year.
• Introducing a national funding formula in which no schools would lose funding.
• A pledge to remove the 1 per cent teacher pay cap, which “along with protected real per pupil spending should help with the recruitment and retention of teachers”.
• Plans for earlier identification and support of children with SEND.

The analysis also raises concerns about four policies:

• The risk that large expenditure on the early years free hours policy “will fail to deliver any significant attainment gains without stronger and affordable measures to raise quality”.
• The 2020 target for continuing professional development for teachers represents fewer hours of CPD than in 2013.
• Policy plans are reliant on higher government borrowing, which might be risky if the economy weakens.
• A lack of clarity over the future of school improvement drivers in a part academy and part maintained school system.

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