More than 10,000 jobs were advertised in The TES between the end of August and the end of September. If this rate were maintained throughout the school year, almost 80,000 jobs would appear by next July. Given that some schools advertise posts for two weeks and others re-advertise, the number of posts advertised would be lower, perhaps up to 20 per cent lower, based on analysis of the leadership spine.
Nevertheless, this would still mean around 60,000 jobs advertised during the year. Such a number would probably be the equivalent of some 12 per cent of all teaching posts. Even allowing for a smaller number of adverts in the weeks towards the end of each term, if the bumper issues of last March, April and May were to be repeated next spring, then these figures do not seem too far out of line.
Many of these vacancies will be created as a result of “churn” in the job market caused by teachers switching jobs: for promotion, to find an easier school or because they fancy a change of scene. Moving for such reasons becomes easier as more job opportunities arise.
What is clear is that at times of recruitment difficulties, the “churn rate” rises for the profession as a whole. Indeed, it can develop a momentum all of its own. The additional costs associated with “churning” are one of the side-effects of a free market in teaching posts. It will only be reduced to more normal levels when the basic cause - an excess of teaching posts over applicants - is eradicated.
e-mail john.howson@lineone.net
