There has been much debate in recent years over the state of arts subjects in England.

Arts sector organisations and teaching unions have argued that the arts are in decline in England’s schools as a consequence of changes to school performance tables and pressures on school funding. The Department for Education has been quick to refute such claims, publishing analysis earlier this year indicating that arts entry rates have remained generally stable in recent years.

It has, therefore, been difficult to understand what the true picture is. In a new report published today, the Education Policy Institute brings new insights to bear on this debate.

It includes new analysis of entries to arts subjects by each key stage 4 cohort over the past decade, examining all types of qualifications taken by pupils and considering the extent to which entries vary between different groups of pupils. This is supplemented by feedback from secondary teachers and school leaders.

We found that by 2016, GCSE entry rates for arts subjects had fallen to their lowest level in a decade. This followed several years of gradual increases up to around 2014. In 2016, 53.5 per cent of pupils entered at least one arts subject, compared with 57.1 per cent in 2014 and 55.6 per cent in 2007. In addition, provisional data for 2017 suggests that the decline is ongoing.

There are a variety of factors which have been reported as underpinning this recent drop. These include the introduction of new school accountability measures (the EBacc and Progress 8), reductions in school budgets and school-level issues, such as the decisions and priorities of school leaders, and attitudes of parents and pupils.

EBacc ‘isn’t having the biggest impact’

The EBacc is often cited as placing pressure on arts subjects, as it does not include the arts and limits the number of entries that pupils can have in non-EBacc subjects.

However, our analysis suggests that it is the introduction of Progress 8 that is particularly significant. Introduced in 2016, this new headline performance measure requires entries to English, maths, three EBacc subjects and three “other” subjects. In 2016, the proportion of pupils entered for the full EBacc increased by just 1 percentage point, but the proportion entered for four of its five components rose by a considerable 10.8 percentage points.

In other words, schools are increasing entries to EBacc subjects, but not in a way that is substantially increasing entry rates to the full EBacc. What this will do, however, is increase the number of Progress 8 “slots” being filled, and so this change in entries is likely to be in response to the introduction of Progress 8 rather than the EBacc itself.

Whilst Progress 8 limits the number of non-EBacc subjects that can be used to fill its subject slots, the fact that arts subjects can count towards the three “other” subject slots means that it provides an element of protection for the arts.

In schools at which pupils obtain good results in arts subjects, there is an incentive to continue to offer these subjects, even though lower numbers of pupils are likely to enter them due to having fewer free subject options.

In addition, there are major differences in the likelihood of taking at least one arts subject between different groups of pupils.

Those living in southern regions are consistently more likely than pupils in the North to enter at least one arts subject. In 2016, the proportion of pupils entering at least one arts subject ranged from 57.3 per cent in the South West to 47.8 per cent in the North East - a gap of 9.5 percentage points.

Moreover, girls are considerably more likely than boys to take an arts subject, with 64.7 per cent doing so in 2016, compared with 42.5 per cent of boys; this is a substantial gap of 22.3 percentage points.

There are also large gaps in arts entries between pupils from different ethnic backgrounds. Whilst Black Caribbean pupils have high entry rates, those from Indian and Pakistani backgrounds are much less likely to enter at least one arts subject than are pupils from other ethnic groups.

For pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM), there has been a notable shift over the past decade.

At the start of the period, they were considerably less likely than their peers to enter at least one arts subject. Following a substantial increase in entry rates between 2011 and 2014, however, FSM pupils became more likely than non-FSM pupils to enter at least one arts subject.

This change is likely to be linked to reforms to vocational qualifications made under the Coalition government, which may have initially incentivised schools to guide pupils away from these qualifications and towards arts subjects.

The key question to be asked is what these findings mean for pupils.

Existing research suggests both that participation in the arts is associated with a variety of benefits for pupils, and that schools that have greatly increased EBacc entries have experienced improved GCSE results in English and maths.

Over the next few years, as schools adjust further to Progress 8, and as the government seeks to increase entries to the full EBacc, it will be important to identify and achieve an appropriate balance in the school curriculum on offer to all pupils.

Becky Johnes is a senior researcher at the Education Policy Institute, and tweets at @becky_johnes

Want to keep up with the latest education news and opinion? Follow Tes on Twitter and like Tes on Facebook