A RECORD number of student teachers will be starting postgraduate certificate in education courses this autumn.

This is good news for the Government as the market for graduates has been buoyant for most of the past 12 months. Overall, 700 extra trainees had been accepted on to centrally-administered PGCE courses by the beginning of September. And the final figure may be nearer 1,000 if there is the usual late rush for places.

However, even though the headline figures look good, and will seem even better once the numbers on undergraduate courses, employment-based training schemes and distance-learning courses such as the Open University’s are included, they must be set against a rising secondary school population.

By next September there will be roughly 46,000 more secondary pupils than this year. Therefore, around 3,000 more teachers could be needed. Add these to the 2,000 vacancies, plus other posts covered by temporary staff, and up to 6,000 more secondary teachers might be needed for next September.

Another worry is that the growth in trainees is not spread evenly across all subjects. In maths, there are 52 extra trainees, and in technology, an extra 289. However, in languages there are 100 fewer than last year. There are also small falls in music and RE trainee numbers. English has attracted 130 more students, and science nearly 200 more. History and PE have both seen healthy increases, but geography has seen a smaller increase, even though more places are on offer. Art, which traditionally recruits well, has had a small increase.

Overall, therefore, this year’s cohort of new trainees will not solve next year’s recruitment problems. Retaining teachers and persuading others to return will still be very important. Heads should start booking their flights now for the annual overseas recruitment drive.

John Howson is managing director of Education Data Surveys. Email: int.edu@lineone.net