Teacher numbers are expected to fall each year until 2022, a new DfE report has revealed.
The figures, in the Working Futures 2017-2027 report, reveal that employment in the education sector is expected to fall annually 0.3 per cent over 2017-22, before returning to “minimal growth” by 2027.
That’s equivalent to around 1300 teachers leaving each year, based on latest figures (for 2018) which show there are around 453,400 full-time equivalent (FTE) teachers working in state-funded schools.
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Joint-general secretary of the NEU teaching union Mary Bousted said the rising pupil numbers in secondary schools would mean increased class sizes and “even more workload”. She said: “This is a profession which is completely exhausted and overworked. I don’t think this is a good prospect either for teachers or pupils.”
The DfE recently said it needs to recruit 9,000 more teachers by 2025 to cope with an increase of 15 per cent in the number of pupils in secondary schools.
Last week education secretary Gavin Williamson told northern school leaders that he knows some schools do not have enough teachers. He also acknowledged that this was a big problem and a particular issue in the North East of England.
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “This forecast is terrible news for schools which are already struggling with a severe shortage of teachers, particularly given the fact that a huge increase in the number of secondary school pupils is expected over the next few years.
“Many schools face a double whammy. Not only is recruitment extremely difficult, but their budgets are so tight that staffing numbers are severely constrained in any case. The government is taking action to improve teacher recruitment and retention through various measures, but it was too slow to act over this crisis and the chickens are now coming home to roost.”
The DfE has been contacted for comment.
