There will not be a return to the pre-Covid-19 “normal” whenever we come through the current pandemic crisis. Whenever major global crises have struck in the past, from the Black Death of 1347 to 1352 to the most recent financial crises of 2008, there was no return to times past. Economies were shaken and societies were changed.

While the current crisis is not expected to be as catastrophic as the Black Death, it is increasingly expected to be more severe than the recent financial crises. Although I cannot be certain as to the scale or precise nature of the post-pandemic shake-up, I do think it is already safe to say that the college sector is going to face major change and challenges due to the economic and social effects of Covid-19 - just like many other sectors of the economy.

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If we reflect back on post-2008, many young people who passed through the college sector entered more precarious work than my generation ever faced. Many have faced little growth in incomes as they have experienced the consequences of austerity. It is likely another new generation of young people will face at least the same, if not more difficult circumstances. Inter-generational inequality will be increased unless we behave very differently to the austerity policies post-2008. I want to focus here on just a few economic and labour market issues that are likely to arise.

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The skills challenge post-2008 was well described recently by the chief executive of the Scottish and Northern Ireland Plumbing Employers’ Federation (but before there was a complete understanding of the pandemic we now face):

“Scotland is still recovering from the 2008 recession, when the number of apprentices dropped from 1800 in training to 700 - a collapse which had serious implications for the sustainability of the profession.”

This suggests that there may be particular challenges facing the apprenticeship system. Further, recent economic forecasts suggest that we should expect UK unemployment to exceed 2 million. As we know, colleges will be expected to respond.

The Covid-19-inspired recession will be a different type of recession to many in the past. Whereas most recessions are caused by a fall in demand, this recession is being caused by a substantial cutting off of supply: businesses closed and workers staying at home have shut down large sections of the economy. Already some businesses, large and small, have not been able to remain active and will never return. For others, as they try to emerge from the crisis into a much-changed economic landscape, many are predicting a fall in investment.

Furthermore, few economists believe this will be a V-shaped recession. Thus although the pandemic has led to a remarkably fast closing down of large sections of the economy, it is very unlikely that there can be as dramatic a bounce back. 

All of these impacts will feed through to business appetite for engagement with education and skills programmes. 

Despite this, we do have strong evidence from past recessions that skills will play a significant role in at least ameliorating some of the worst possible consequences. As a major UK parliamentary report in 2015 pointed out:

“In the run-up to the financial crisis, the upskilling of the UK’s workforce accounted for around 20 per cent of total labour productivity growth. During and after the crisis, overall growth in labour productivity was negative on average …. but the contribution of skills continued to make a positive contribution. The implication of this finding is that labour productivity growth could have been even weaker in the UK in recent years had it not been for the significant upskilling of the workforce.”

Skills are critical. But the type of skills needed for the future may well be different to those needed before the pandemic. There are likely to be changes in the international demand for goods and services; perhaps increasing demands for healthcare products and logistics, to take two obvious examples. 

Individuals’ personal choices are being reshaped by the experience of lockdown. There are already predictions of a major readjustment in the retail sector as huge numbers of consumers have had to switch to online shopping with little incentive to abandon their new-found online shopping skills.  This is likely to accelerate the decline of traditional high streets, but also raise demands for IT skills among businesses that want to flourish.

There wont be a return to the pre-Covid19 normal. Just as the Black Death led to huge changes in Europe, so this pandemic will usher in huge challenges. Colleges will have a part to play in rebuilding the future, and colleges, no less than any other sector, will have to face a new economic and social landscape…and this says nothing of the additional impact of Brexit.

Roger Mullin is director of Momentous Change, a former SNP MP and former adviser on college reform to the Scottish government