Five years on from the first lockdown, the story of disadvantaged children falling behind their classmates feels a familiar one. The pandemic also left in its wake other major headaches for the education system, chief among them being the epidemic of pupil absence.
But until now, we haven’t really understood the connection between the two: how much of the widening disadvantage gap can be explained by soaring levels of pupil absence?
This is precisely what our latest research at the Education Policy Institute has examined by breaking down the disadvantage gap into its individual components, including, for the first time, pupil absence.
Doing this allows us to provide a clear understanding of where an overstretched government should be focusing efforts in its mission to break the link between a child’s background and their educational opportunities.
The impact of absence
We find that by the time students take their GCSEs, disadvantaged young people have fallen 18 months behind their peers, and the single biggest driver - contributing half of the gap - is how well a pupil attains at age 11.
Given all we know about the importance of intervening early in a child’s life, perhaps this isn’t surprising.
But what did surprise us is that the next most important factor is pupil absence, contributing almost one-quarter of the gap.
To put it another way, if disadvantaged students had the same level of absence as their peers, the GCSE gap would be four months smaller. This contribution of absence has grown over time, with absence fully explaining the gap-widening we’ve seen from 2019 to 2023.
The third largest contributor to the gap is the “peer effect”, especially among students preparing for their GCSEs. We find the higher likelihood of disadvantaged students attending schools and colleges with lower-attaining intakes contributes one month to the gap.
Takeaways for government
Firstly, when we dig deeper into what’s going on with absence, we find it’s not just a story of post-pandemic spikes in illness absence. It is unauthorised absence that is of key concern, particularly at secondary school.
Compared with authorised absence, it contributes more to the GCSE gap and its contribution has grown faster since 2019. So, without an effective strategy for tackling the complex root causes of absence, the government will struggle to meaningfully tackle the disadvantage attainment gap.
Any strategy must also include early identification of special educational needs and disabilities, improved mental health support both within and outside of schools and initiatives to strengthen pupils’ sense of belonging at school.
Reality of failing to intervene
Secondly, our research highlights the reality of failing to intervene early enough in a child’s life despite a wealth of evidence telling us to do just that. Not only do poorer children start school almost five months behind their peers, but they also fall further behind at every stage.
The forthcoming Spending Review and child poverty strategy are pivotal opportunities to address this. We have specifically called for the government to consider centralising auto-enrolment for free school meals to ensure wider coverage as well as abolishing the two-child limit and the benefit cap.
Thirdly, the nature of what’s driving the gap appears to depend on the phase of education. By the time disadvantaged students progress to GCSEs and into 16-19 education, the effect of our segregated education system is laid bare and emerges as a further factor holding these students back.
No time to lose
We need fairer school admissions, as well as better information, advice and guidance to ensure higher-attaining disadvantaged students in particular don’t opt for courses below their potential.
Five years on, our research confirms the long-lasting and profound effects that the pandemic has had on the education system.
But while many gaps continue to widen for disadvantaged and other vulnerable children and young people, history tells us that progress is possible.
Dr Eva Jiménez is a researcher in the School Workforce Team at the Education Policy Institute
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