Last week - for the first time - the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) published figures on attainment broken down by sector, meaning that the performance of state and independent schools could be easily compared for the first time.

The figures showed that the gap in the Higher pass rate had narrowed considerably when the exams were cancelled in 2020 and teachers were responsible for grading their students. Then, between 2020 and 2021, it widened a little - but still remained considerably below 2019 levels.

In 2019, the gap was 18.9 percentage points; in 2020 it was 8.9 and in 2021 it was 10.5.

The new breakdown of the statistics also revealed some fascinating detail, including that almost all independent school entries for Higher English resulted in a pass - in 2021, 99.5 per cent of private school students entered for Higher English got an A, B or a C grade. In state schools, that figure was 87.3 per cent.

Inevitably - even though the attainment gap had narrowed - questions were asked about why private schools outperform state schools. Some opposition parties used the figures as a stick to beat the government with and perpetuated the myth that independent schools intrinsically provide a better education, while turning a blind eye to the influence of demographics in a school’s attainment.

The truth, of course, is that independent schools are, by and large, dealing with affluent students from stable backgrounds, who have every advantage. And, when you look at how well state schools serve this cohort, the attainment gap narrows - the Higher pass rate of students in state schools who live in the 10 per cent least-deprived postcodes in Scotland was 92.3 per cent this year, against a 97.2 per cent pass rate in the private sector.

And one Scottish council - known for its affluent catchment - actually closed the gap even further. In West Dunbartonshire, 95.8 per cent of Higher entries resulted in an A to C grade, which means that authority’s attainment is almost on a par with the private sector.

A new exams system for Scotland?

A more interesting question than why independent schools post higher attainment scores than state schools, then, is: why do state school students do better when their teachers are responsible for their grades?

This could be - as was suggested by one MSP sitting on the Scottish Parliament’s Education, Children and Young People Committee last week - because teachers are “marking their own jotters”.

But it could also be about the myriad other things that were different this year: there was no national adjustment of grade boundaries; exams papers were often divided up over a number of days and sat in class, not in an exam hall over several hours; there was no exam leave so, as assessments were sat, students continued to get support and advice from their teachers; and assessments could be sat at different times if students missed them.

The reality, though, is that we are largely relying on speculation.

Tes Scotland put in a freedom of information request in December - four months after the 2020 results were published - to ask the SQA for any work that had been undertaken to better understand why teacher estimates were so much higher than historic attainment.

In response, the body pointed to Mark Priestley’s rapid review, but that was mainly concerned with looking at why the SQA got quality assurance so horribly wrong in 2020, and how things could be done differently if the situation was ever repeated (which, of course, it was - by December 2020 all national exams had been cancelled once again).

Now, as Scotland looks to reform its qualifications system in a bid to better align the way students are assessed with the aspirations of the curriculum, it would seem a good time to get to the bottom of the reasons for the leap in pass rates during Covid, especially as teachers could be given more of a role in assessing their students in the future.

In the short term, though, it seems likely that - if exams go ahead as planned in 2022 - the attainment gap between state and independent schools will once again widen to something akin to the last pre-Covid year of 2019.

State schools and their leaders would do well to ignore the noise this generates and focus on the real challenge that lies ahead, which has to be making assessment in senior secondary fit for the future. Late-afternoon events, feeding into the ongoing Muir review on 6 and 28 October, are a good place to start.

Teachers’ views will be essential in shaping a system that is fairer than what we have now - don’t miss the chance to have your say.

Emma Seith is a reporter for Tes Scotland. She tweets @Emma_Seith

This article originally appeared in the 1 October 2021 issue under the headline “Scotland needs a fairer exams system and teachers must help to design it”