The number of unfilled places in primary schools last year increased to the highest since data collection began.
In 2023-24, there were 611,000 unfilled primary places, new Department for Education data shows - a 5.8 per cent increase from 578,000 in 2022-23.
This reflects the continuing fall in primary-age pupils. Last year, 84 per cent of primary schools had at least one unfilled place, a proportion that has remained the same since 2020-21.
The total number of unfilled places in primary schools has been increasing steadily since 2020-21.
The proportion of total unfilled primary places was projected last year to rise to 16 per cent over five years because of a drop in the birth rate.
Meanwhile, the rate at which primary places are added has continued to slow to 0.02 per cent in 2023-24. The DfE said more than half of regions have seen a reduction in the number of primary places between 2023 and 2024.
According to DfE data, Westminster had the highest proportion of unfilled primary places as a percentage of total places last year at 30.5 per cent.
This contrasts with Coventry, where only 1.5 per cent of primary places were unfilled last year.
Growth in secondary places slows
The rate of growth for secondary places was 0.6 per cent in 2023-24 - the lowest growth rate since 2011-12. This is the fourth consecutive year the growth rate for secondary school places has slowed.
In total, secondary places have increased by around 1 per cent per year on average since 2012-13 as a population bulge moved through the system.
Nearly a quarter (24 per cent) of secondary schools were at or over capacity last year, reaching the highest point since 2010-11.
School capacity data also shows there were approximately 8,000 more secondary students on roll in special schools than capacity as of the May 2024 census.
No excuse to cut funding
The National Foundation for Educational Research has warned that falling rolls should not be used as an opportunity to cut the total schools budget.
If the DfE decided to freeze per-pupil spending in real terms after 2025-26 in the light of falling rolls, this would amount to a £1.8 billion real-terms cut in total school spending by 2028-29, Institute for Fiscal Studies research fellow Luke Sibieta said yesterday.
The Education Policy Institute suggested last year that the per-pupil funding hit to schools from falling rolls could reach £1 billion by 2030.
36,000 primary places still needed by 2028
Despite the decline in primary pupils nationally, the DfE said an estimated 36,000 primary places are still needed in order to meet demand in 2028-29.
For secondary, an estimated 37,000 places are still needed to meet demand by the same year.
“Even in times of a declining population, there will still be increasing demand in some areas of the country,” the DfE said.
These estimates do not take into account spare places, in acknowledgement that need in one local authority cannot necessarily be offset by spare places in another local authority.
This morning, the DfE has announced £1 billion to fund 44,500 places needed in mainstream schools by 2028.
