Spending on support for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) will exceed £20 billion by the end of the decade, as the number of pupils receiving help continues to increase, according to a leading think tank.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the proportion of children receiving both educational and disability benefit support has doubled over the past decade, driving a “dramatic and ongoing” rise in spending, which is only set to climb.

The think tank’s analysis shows that combined spending on education, health and care plans (EHCPs) and child disability living allowance (CDLA) is currently £16 billion per year, up from £8 billion in 2016 after adjusting for inflation. The IFS forecasts this spending to reach £21 billion by 2029.

The proportion of children with EHCPs, which is the highest level of statutory support, has almost doubled in the past decade, from 2.7 per cent to 5.2 per cent of under-16s in England, official figures show.

The proportion of children receiving CDLA has more than doubled from 3.4 per cent to 7.2 per cent in the same time period, with one in 10 15-year-olds now receiving the benefit.

The IFS said this growth is being driven largely by rising numbers of children receiving support for autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The number of pupils with EHCPs for autism has almost tripled since 2015, accounting for around 40 per cent of the overall increase.

SEND spending pressures

The increase is putting mounting financial pressure on councils, which have a legal duty to fund the provisions set out in EHCPs. Local authority high-needs spending has risen 66 per cent in real terms since 2016 - reaching £12 billion this year. The IFS forecasts this to grow a further £3 billion by 2029.

Government grants have not fully covered the funding, and the gap has forced councils to accumulate growing deficits, which the IFS forecasts to reach £8 billion by 2028.

Local authorities are currently shielded from the usual borrowing rules through a “statutory override” on high-needs spending deficits, but this is due to expire in 2028.

The IFS warned that, if these pressures continue unchecked, they are likely to result in real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil or further government bailouts to cover high-needs deficits. It called on the Office for Budget Responsibility to start publishing annual forecasts for high-needs spending and deficits.

‘Schools do not have sufficient funding’

Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “The truly shocking thing is that despite this increase in spending, we are still left with a system that is failing to cope with the needs of these children and young people. Schools do not have sufficient funding and resources, assessments are commonly delayed, and families are left desperate and frustrated by the gaps in the system.

“Change is urgently needed, and we look forward to seeing the government’s forthcoming plans, but it is essential that they are backed up with sufficient funding, staffing and access to specialist support. A more financially sustainable system will not be achieved overnight and will require investment to make it work effectively. Above all, it must deliver for children and families.”

Among the young people who received both EHCPs and CDLA at age 15 in 2014, half were not in education, employment or training (NEET) by age 22, and 75 per cent were receiving adult disability benefits.

“A clear risk is that the big increases in spending on children will be followed by higher spending on young adults,” said Darcey Snape, research economist at the IFS and one of the report’s authors.

She said there is “worryingly little evidence on what forms of support deliver the best outcomes for these young people now and into the future”, and argued that reforms to EHCPs expected in the government’s forthcoming White Paper should be accompanied by a review of CDLA, which has remained largely unchanged since its introduction more than 30 years ago.

Boys are twice as likely as girls to have EHCPs or to receive CDLA, and rates rise steeply with age. There are also large variations between ethnic groups that cannot be explained by income alone, the IFS said.

Tes revealed earlier this year that the government was looking at whether EHCPs are the right way to support pupils with SEND. This prompted widespread concern that the government’s reforms could result in reduced rights for children and young people with SEND.

At a recent Westminster debate, new schools minister Georgia Gould told MPs that there will always be a legal right to additional support for SEND.

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