It’s unusual to be 18 months into the life of a new government with no White Paper setting out a direction on schools’ policy. After the 2010 election we had a White Paper within six months; in 1997 it took just two months.

This government hasn’t been sitting around doing nothing. We’ve had a Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill, currently in its final stages in the House of Lords.

There’s been a curriculum and assessment review, an Ofsted overhaul and a plan to expand free school meals to all families on universal credit.

But it’s all been rather disjointed - without much in the way of organising principles or clarity of purpose.

White Paper pressure

All of which puts more pressure on a White Paper when it does appear. We were told it was due last September, then it got delayed until late autumn, and now it’s supposed to be appearing in the next month or so.

The delays indicate that ministers understand its importance.

Some of the content has been flagged in advance. New low-stakes key stage 3 assessments have already been announced, albeit with limited details.

Education secretary Bridget Phillipson has made it clear that there will be a focus on white working-class boys, in part to counter Reform’s (inaccurate) narrative that this group has been ignored.

There will be little in the way of major structural reforms, and schools will be encouraged to join trusts or other groupings. The academy trust model isn’t going to be abandoned.

The SEND challenge

By far the most important section of the White Paper will be on special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Everyone agrees that the current SEND system is broken. Spending is up 60 per cent in a decade in real terms, but outcomes are no better, and the bureaucracy of education, health and care plans (EHCPs) is out of control.

Processes designed for 2 per cent of the pupil population are now being used by three times as many. Those who need help the most are getting less support as services are rationed and waiting times lengthen. It’s pushing many local authorities towards bankruptcy.

There is less agreement on what to do about it. Many parent groups are worried about losing their rights and argue that providing more cash for early intervention would save money later without messing around with EHCPs.

But the government is likely to try to do both simultaneously, using revenue saved from reducing EHCP numbers to fund schools to run their own interventions for a wider group.

Given Labour’s lack of political capital after a difficult year and nervousness amongst MPs, ministers will have to be at their most persuasive to convince colleagues that this is a fight worth having.

High stakes

They don’t have much choice but to try given that there simply isn’t enough money in their budgets to keep going with the current system.

If they get it right, these reforms could give the government’s education agenda a real sense of purpose.

Overall, our education system is now a good one - relative to our international competitors - for median- and high-attaining students. But more vulnerable groups have struggled.

Having finally ditched the two-child limit on benefits, and widened eligibility for free school meals, ministers do have a positive story to tell about poverty.

If they can combine this with real improvements for those with special needs they will have achieved more than most.

But if their reforms fall apart, it’s hard to see the current team remaining in place. The stakes are high.

A sense of purpose - at last

Meanwhile, schools will, as they have done for the past decade of Westminster chaos, get on with the job regardless.

Funding will remain tight. Wider social challenges, including with mental health, will keep adding pressure. It should, at least, get easier to recruit new trainees as unemployment rises.

It would be nice, though, if national policy could offer some support after many years when it’s been close to an irrelevance for most leaders and teachers.

Sam Freedman is a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and a former senior policy adviser at the Department for Education

He will be speaking at the Schools North East Academies Conference on 29 January 2026 at The Grand Hotel, Gosforth, Newcastle. The programme includes sessions focused on key issues in education today, including improving attendance, tackling inequality and poverty proofing, and experts will also focus on Ofsted, SEND and the curriculum review. Spaces are limited. Learn more and book here.

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