In Scotland, exam results day is on the horizon, with students due to receive their grades on Tuesday.
Reform of education in Scotland - be that changes to the country’s qualifications body or its school inspectorate - has been talked about since 2021, when Shirley-Anne Somerville, who was education secretary at the time, announced that the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) would be replaced, and the functions of curriculum and inspection body Education Scotland split.
Still, there has been little tangible change on the ground and, beginning in late April, senior secondary students went through the annual exam diet much as they have been doing for decades.
So, what can we expect when the results are published next week - and how might things change in the future?
SQA results day: the focus will remain on pass rates - but should it?
Pass rates - the proportion of students achieving an A to C - have long been one of the key statistics homed in on come results day. So there will be attention on whether pass rates have gone up at National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher - or gone down.
With the SQA having finally clawed the pass rate back down to pre-pandemic levels (or at least 2019 levels) last year, there could be some good news. Might there be a slight rise in the proportion of students gaining A to C grades this year.
The last of the assessment mitigations put in place in response to the pandemic disappeared in 2023-24 with the return of coursework. That change - which was controversial at the time because teachers argued that the return of coursework should have been gradual - has had another year to bed in. This could mean an uptick in results.
Whatever happens, it’s unlikely that there will be any big shifts in pass rates - which some argue should not be the focus anyway.
Dr Marina Shapira, an academic at the University of Stirling, has made the case for looking at the proportion of the entire cohort passing different levels of qualification, not just those entered for a particular qualification.
This approach was taken by the Commission on School Reform in a report published in December. It found that 40.1 per cent of all S4 students had passed National 5 mathematics in 2024; the pass rate for those in S4 who actually took the qualification was 76 per cent. Ultimately, the fact that less than half of 16-year-olds achieved N5-level maths in 2024 was criticised.
However, with rather stark figures like that, it seems unlikely that the Scottish government will be shifting its focus on results day.
Higher history
One pass rate that will be carefully scrutinised this year is Higher history. In the wake of the 2024 exam results, Tes Scotland exclusively revealed that the Higher history pass rate had fallen by 13 percentage points, dropping from 78.7 per cent in 2023 to 65.7 per cent.
That news story marked the beginning of a furore that continued into 2025 and arguably proved to be the final straw for SQA chief executive Fiona Robertson. Her departure was announced in February, just days before the body was due to appear before MSPs for the second time over the issue.
This year it seems likely that extreme care will have been taken at grade boundary meetings to ensure that history qualifications are free from controversy. Could the Higher history pass rate bounce back? All will be revealed on Tuesday.
Attainment gap
The story that dominated the news on results day last year, however, was the difference between the pass rates of those from the most and least deprived communities, which, of course, is referred to as the attainment gap.
The attainment gap widened at N5, Higher and Advanced Higher in 2024 compared with 2023 - and compared with 2019.
In June this year the SQA’s own research showed that teachers were less satisfied with the way students were assessed in 2024 than they were in 2023. A big factor was frustration at the way the aforementioned return of coursework was handled.
In particular, teachers felt that Higher students were thrown in at the deep end, given that they had no experience of coursework at N5 level.
This year Higher candidates have that experience of essays and reports under their belts, and this could be reflected in improved data come results day.
However, another key factor when it comes to attainment is attendance. There is a lack of up-to-date data on pupil attendance in the public domain in Scotland - the most recent figures apply to the 2023-24 school year - but anecdotal evidence suggests that students not turning up for school regularly enough remains a big issue.
The SQA’s last exam results day
Whatever the outcomes of this year’s exams, one thing is certain: the SQA will be seeking to keep the ship steady before it is replaced in December.
It’s the last exam diet under the SQA banner; next year results certificates will be issued by Qualifications Scotland.
That may be the most profound change that the replacement of the SQA ushers in if fears that the government’s reforms will amount to little more than a rebrand come to pass.
Teachers can but hope that 2026 will mark the dawn of a new era and the government will deliver on its promise to make the new qualifications body “a front-footed organisation that has the views of teachers, of pupils and parents at its heart”.
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