Around seven in 10 primary schools are facing budget deficits amid widespread concerns about falling pupil numbers, new analysis warns.

The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) found that one in five primary school leaders (21 per cent) ended or expected to end 2024-25 with an in-year budget deficit. This compares with 9 per cent of secondary school leaders.

And looking ahead to the 2025-26 financial year, 71 per cent of primary leaders and 65 per cent of secondary leaders anticipated an in-year budget deficit. Of these school leaders, three-quarters said they expected to cut provision, such as reducing their curriculum offer.

The analysis drew on responses from more than 350 senior leaders surveyed in the NFER’s Teacher Voice Omnibus Survey in June 2025.

Falling pupil rolls

Three in five primary school leaders and two in five secondary leaders said they were concerned about the impact of falling pupil numbers on their school. Secondary leaders voiced this fear despite the fact that secondary rolls are not forecast to drop for several years.

Schools are already cutting staff and provision, the survey shows. Some 69 per cent of primary and 65 per cent of secondary leaders concerned about falling pupil rolls reported cutting support staff.

And 41 per cent of primary and 58 per cent of secondary leaders reported cutting teaching staff.

Leaders also reported that they are reducing extracurricular activities, narrowing the curriculum and, in some primary schools, increasing the use of mixed-age classes.

‘Real headache’ for schools

Jenna Julius, the NFER’s research director, said the financial landscape for schools remains “challenging” and warned that “falling pupil numbers are already driving difficult choices and adjustments - from cutting staff to narrowing the curriculum, to considering mergers or even closure”.

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said that with most funding calculated on a per-pupil basis, “falling rolls can create a real headache for schools already struggling amid severe financial pressures”.

He urged the Department for Education to protect the schools most affected by falling numbers, warning that without support this will have a “disproportionate impact on budgets, particularly for small schools”.

Mr Whiteman also said that the government, instead of reducing funding, should continue to invest in schools, maintain existing staffing levels and reduce the “unsustainable” workload that is fuelling recruitment and retention crises. 

In the survey, 20 per cent of primary leaders and 10 per cent of secondary leaders said they had explored or were considering a merger with another school. Meanwhile, 7 per cent of primary and 6 per cent of secondary leaders said they had discussed or were considering closing their school.

Ms Julius warned that without “proactive, system-level planning and support” from both local and national government, these pressures “risk the quality of education and pupils’ experiences in the years ahead”.

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