Schools cannot be fully protected from the financial pressures caused by falling pupil numbers, and will need to "adapt" to smaller intakes, the government has said.
The Department for Education acknowledged the pressure on schools' budgets caused by falling primary rolls, but stopped short of committing to additional financial support.
The House of Lords inquiry into falling primary school rolls warned existing funding arrangements were not providing enough support to schools facing steep declines in pupil numbers.
In its official response to the inquiry, the DfE said: “We cannot completely insulate schools from pressures resulting from demographic change.”
Schools experiencing a reduction in pupil numbers would need to adapt to their smaller intakes, it added.
The government said it will continue to review funding arrangements, including whether further support may be appropriate.
There will be 7.22 million pupils aged 0-15 in state-funded schools in 2030, according to the latest DfE figures.
This is 286,000 (3.8 per cent) fewer than the 7.5 million forecast by the DfE a year ago.
Concerns over funding
Most school funding is allocated based on pupil numbers, meaning schools experiencing falling rolls could see funding fall faster than reductions to fixed costs, such as staffing and energy.
Earlier this year, the National Audit Office (NAO) said primary schools could receive £288 million less in per-pupil funding next year due to falling rolls.
The Lords Public Services Committee asked the government to consider further protections in the national funding formula to support schools experiencing large annual reductions.
It also called on the DfE to consider more comprehensive transitional funding for schools experiencing sustained declines.
In its response, the DfE highlighted existing protections, including the £152,700 lump sum allocated to schools through the national funding formula in 2026-27, and additional funding for some small rural schools.
The DfE also allocated £155 million to councils through the combined growth and falling rolls funding arrangements this year.
However, funding to support schools experiencing temporary reductions in pupil numbers is usually restricted to schools where the places are expected to be needed again within two years.
The DfE has faced repeated calls from MPs, peers, unions and the NAO to provide sufficient strategic and financial support to schools struggling with declining pupil numbers.
Councils expected to publish plans
The DfE also set out further details of its "strategic school place planning" framework, which it says it will publish this year.
All local authorities will be expected to develop, publish and maintain multi-year plans for managing school places under the framework.
Councils will also be expected to publish summaries of their plans, explaining how they intend to respond to changing demand for school places.
The guidance will include examples of good practice to help councils decide how to manage surplus capacity, the government said, such as whether unused classrooms could be repurposed for special educational needs and disabilities provision, nurseries or other community services.
The DfE also confirmed plans to consult on changes that would allow councils to challenge schools’ admission numbers where they have been maintained or increased, rather than only where they have been reduced.
Impact on attainment
The DfE also committed to investigating whether falling pupil numbers are linked to lower key stage 2 attainment, particularly among disadvantaged pupils.
The analysis will examine falling rolls across different types of primary schools and geographies, before looking at their relationship with attainment, the DfE said.
The findings will inform updated guidance and the sharing of good practice next year, the government added.
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