How concerning is the school leader retention data?
It is no secret that education is facing a crisis in staff recruitment and retention.
The problem isn’t just limited to classroom teachers - it’s an issue that goes all the way to the top.
A new Department for Education data release, based on the School Workforce Census, exposes the scale of the crisis in leadership retention, covering headteachers, deputy heads and assistant heads at primary and secondary schools in England.
Overall, the report points to a grave problem in leadership retention. Here are the key insights you need to know.
1. Retention rates for primary headteachers are poor
Primary headteacher retention rates have been in decline since 2011 - a trend that will become familiar throughout this report.
According to the latest data, the primary sector loses one in 10 headteachers from their posts after one year’s service, two in 10 after three years, and three in 10 after five years.
Given that there are approximately 16,951 primary heads in England, this means we lose more than 5,000 people within five years of them taking on their roles.
Interestingly, while the one-year stat is the same for primary heads as it is for the teacher workforce generally - a retention rate of 89.7 per cent - the primary head rate remains higher (70 per cent) after five years, while the overall teacher rate drops to 57 per cent by that time.
2. Retention rates for secondary headteachers are worse
Since 2011, retention rates have also declined at secondary head level, but to an even greater degree than for primary heads.
At secondary, the sector is losing over 14 per cent of heads after one year of service, more than a third after three years, and almost four in 10 after five years.
According to the latest data, there are 3,881 secondary heads in England, so we lose about 1,455 leaders from their posts within five years of them starting.
The highest retention rates from the data available came in 2011, when 91.2 per cent of secondary headteachers remained in their posts after a year, 77.9 per cent did after three years, and 65 per cent did after five years.
3. Deputy headteacher retention remains stable
By comparison, the retention rates of deputy headteachers have remained more or less stable across primary and secondary schools since 2011.
The latest data shows that 89.4 per cent of primary deputy heads remain in the same post or higher after a year, not much less than the 90.3 per cent who did in 2011.
The data is comparable after three years, with 80.3 per cent remaining according to most recent figures, while 80.5 per cent were retained in 2011; and after five years, with the latest data showing that 73.7 per cent are retained, compared with 74.5 per cent in 2011.
And in fact, at secondary, today fractionally more deputies remain in their posts after a year than they did in 2011: 88.1 per cent compared with 87.5 per cent.
The tables turn, however, when it comes to the longer view: the latest data shows that 74.8 per cent of secondary deputies remain after three years, compared with 78.6 per cent in 2011; and 66.7 per cent remain after five years, compared with 67.4 per cent in 2011.
So the retention rates for deputies are a little better than for headteachers, posing questions about whether there is anything we can learn from one post to apply to the other.
4. Assistant headteacher retention is also in decline
That same trend does not apply to assistant heads, however.
At primary, the retention stats for those who stay in the same posts or higher are equivalent to those for primary headteachers: according to the latest data, we lose one in every 10 after one year, more than two in every 10 after three years, and more than three in every 10 after five years.
This is, again, a decline on 2011.
At secondary, retention rates for those staying in the same posts or higher have similarly declined since 2011, with 86 per cent of staff staying after one year compared with 90.3 per cent in 2011. After three years, the latest figure is 71.6 per cent, compared with 75.8 per cent in 2011, and after five years, it’s now 64.8 per cent compared with 2011’s 63.6 per cent.
Caveats to bear in mind
These are worrying trends, especially when compounded with the retention crisis occurring in the teacher workforce more widely.
However, it’s likely that the current state of play is not quite as dreadful as these stats make out, because there are a couple of caveats with this data.
Firstly, the report measures retention as the proportion of leaders who stay in post in the same school phase - so leaders moving between primary and secondary, or between mainstream and special, would be reported as not being retained.
Perhaps more significantly, this data set doesn’t include centrally employed staff at multi-academy trusts (MATs), and is likely to not include all data for executive leaders who work across multiple schools.
Given that the growth of the MAT system has provided many leaders with further opportunities to continue working in education, there is likely to be a higher proportion of leaders who have been retained but who do not show up in this data.
Further analysis of the Teachers’ Pension Scheme - which so far suggests that the number of headteachers still in service but not being reported in the School Workforce Census is increasing - is needed to fully understand the picture in the most accurate terms.
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