The average school will not need to grow its teaching workforce for at least two years, according to government estimates published this week.

The prediction, in a DfE document, comes despite Labour’s manifesto pledge to recruit 6,500 “new” teachers by the end of Parliament.

The document says that, on average, falling rolls mean that schools will need 0.7 per cent fewer teachers between 2026-27 and 2028-29.

But experts say this bakes in larger class sizes, and does not take into account specialist teacher shortages.

Large class sizes here to stay, experts warn

Secondary student numbers will fall by an average of 0.3 per cent in the 2026-27 financial year, 0.4 per cent in 2027-28 and 0.9 per cent in 2028-29, according to the DfE’s modelling.

This, the DfE says, means that teacher numbers at the average secondary school will be sufficient until at least 2029.

Primary school pupil numbers - already being hit by a declining birth rate - are expected to see a steeper fall, dropping by 1.5 per cent in 2026-27, and 1.6 per cent in each of the following years.

They will therefore need 1.2 per cent fewer teachers in 2026-27, and 1.3 per cent fewer in each of 2027-28 and 2028-29, the DfE says.

Government figures show that the secondary and special school workforce already grew by 2,346 teachers between the 2023-24 and 2024-25 academic years.

But there are concerns that major SEND and curriculum reforms may add to the expectations and workload faced by teachers in both mainstream and specialist settings.

For example, the government plans to entitle all GCSE students to take triple science, despite concerns over teacher shortages, particularly in physics.

And the latest SEND reforms risk “overwhelming” Sendcos, experts warned Tes last week.

Staff shortages will ‘continue’

James Zuccollo, director for school workforce at the Education Policy Institute, said that the DfE’s predictions are “plausible” due to falling pupil numbers, but warned that the projections risk “maintaining larger class sizes rather than reversing them”.

Secondary pupil-teacher ratios were 16.7 in 2024-25, up from 14.8 in 2010-11.

And “workforce projections built around aggregate numbers say nothing about whether experienced staff are reaching the schools that need them most,” Mr Zuccollo added.

Half of postgraduate initial teacher training subjects missed their recruitment targets last year, which suggested that the problem of recruiting subject specialists was “far from over”, Mr Zuccollo said.

“We would expect staff shortages to continue in many places if there is no growth in the number of teachers being recruited nationally,” said Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders.

Mr Di’Iasio also warned that secondary school student numbers will vary between schools and regions.

And Melanie Renowden, chief executive of the National Institute of Teaching, said there is a need to ensure that “teachers are working in the places and roles where they are needed, particularly where shortages and pupil disadvantage are most acute”.

Teacher supply may also be hit in ways that are “hard to anticipate”, she warned.

Call for impact review of 6,500 teacher target

The DfE last week published a fuller plan to deliver its manifesto pledge to recruit 6,500 “new expert teachers”, saying its “primary metric” will be “the overall stock of teachers” in secondaries, special schools and FE colleges.

The plan includes retention incentives for heads and teachers working in disadvantaged areas, as well as a boosted maternity pay offer. However, no extra money was pledged for recruitment.

Helen Hayes, chair of the Commons Education Select Committee, told Tes that the government needs to produce a “clear target” for retention.

She welcomed the government’s workforce delivery plan, having previously urged the department to publish more details on its manifesto pledge last month.

“It’s encouraging to see ministers lay out steps to realise the government’s plans to deliver 6,500 new teachers,” she told Tes, adding: “But retention is as important as recruitment, and more must be done to ensure talented teachers remain in the profession.”

She urged the DfE to set out concrete goals for retention. “I call on ministers to incorporate retention rates into any measurement it makes of increasing teacher numbers, and to set out the long-term sustainability and impact of the 6,500 new teachers target,” Ms Hayes said.

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