
IB Math AI SL 4.5 – Introduction to Probability
This lesson introduces students to the fundamental concepts of probability, including trials, outcomes, events, and sample spaces. Students learn to define an event ( A ), its complement ( A’ ), and the probability of an event as the ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes, assuming each is equally likely.
The lesson distinguishes between theoretical probability and experimental probability (relative frequency) through visual and numerical examples, emphasizing how increasing the number of trials leads to results that converge toward theoretical expectations. Learners explore complementary events, using examples such as rolling a die and finding the probability of “not rolling a 5,” to understand the relationship ( P(A’) = 1 - P(A) ).
The concept of expected number of occurrences is introduced to predict outcomes over repeated experiments, reinforcing the connection between probability and statistical inference. Real-world examples, such as coin flips and dice rolls, provide context for key ideas, while guided practice encourages problem-solving with multiple-step probability scenarios.
Fully aligned with IB Math AI SL Topic 4.5 – Introduction to Probability, this resource builds the foundation for later topics in statistics and probability, ensuring conceptual clarity and practical fluency.
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