GCSE Stats - 01.05 Petersen Capture Recapture Method - Statistics

Edexcel GCSE Statistics lesson on capture‑recapture methods to estimate population size. Students learn to apply the Petersen formula in real contexts.
This lesson develops students’ understanding of the Petersen capture‑recapture method, enabling them to estimate unknown population sizes using proportional reasoning. Building on prior knowledge of sampling, learners follow a step-by-step process of capture, marking, recapture, and calculation, supported by clear examples and visual representations. The lesson introduces and applies the capture‑recapture formula, before moving into structured tasks and exam-style questions to build fluency. Students also explore the assumptions of the model, including population stability and equal probability of capture, helping them evaluate the reliability of estimates. Ideal for preparing learners for Edexcel GCSE Statistics exam questions involving real-world population estimation.