World Cup 2026: Probability

Bring Maths to life with the ultimate tournament of the year!

This World Cup 2026 Probability Project bridges the gap between theoretical probability and real-world sports data. Built around the historic 48-team tournament format, this resource naturally captures students’ interest while testing key curriculum skills. This resource is split into three carefully structured tasks that can be taught consecutively as a mini-project or utilized as individual standalone activities.

What’s Included?

Task 1: The 48-Team Expansion (Theoretical Probability & Fractions)
Students analyse the brand-new 48-team structure of the 2026 World Cup. They will calculate the probability of specific teams winning their group using gathered data, representing probabilities as fractions, decimals, and percentages.

Task 2: Probability Statements (Sorting & Reasoning)
Sorting statements based on likelihood (Impossible, Unlikely, Even Chance, Likely, Certain) and placing events accurately on a 0 to 1 probability scale. Great for addressing misconceptions!

Task 3: England Squad Deep Dive (Compare, Contrast & Data Analysis)
A data-rich exploration of the England Squad. Students evaluate player statistics (e.g., goals scored, caps, penalty conversion rates) to determine the probability of tactical outcomes. They will use relative frequency, conditional probability (“What is the probability a forward scores if they start?”), and comparing and contrasting player metrics to make data-driven predictions.

Powerpoint: An overview of the project and introduction to the World Cup 2026